【中信建投：供给宽松预期压制锂价，淡季不淡有望反弹】中信建投研报表示，锂价大幅下行，供给边际宽松预期给予压制，主要是江西锂矿复产及津巴布韦锂精矿到港均将在7月兑现，但精矿维持紧现实格局，部分锂盐厂因原料偏紧及检修等因素出现减量，辉石及云母产量下降，周内产量维持降势；同时库存方面依然维持去化，部分散单惜售挺价。需求侧无过多担忧，初端消费侧，下半年将有较多新产能初步建成并爬产，放大下游补库效应，带来消费的边际增量，终端需求侧，2027年新能源车补贴退坡将夯实年内抢装，推高下半年排产预期，商用车增速乐观，上半年同比增长36%，1-5月纯电动车出口183.3万辆，同比增长114.4%。三季度看，预计7月、8月排产环比均保持正增长，淡季不淡，旺季可期。
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