美国消费者价格数据低于预期后，美国国债上涨，交易员削减了对美联储短期内加息的押注。

　　对美联储近期货币政策前景敏感的两年期美国国债收益率一度下跌14个基点，至4.14%，势创2月以来最大单日跌幅。利率掉期市场定价显示，美联储本月晚些时候加息的概率从40%降至约20%。

　　这组数据令债券持有人和美国政策制定者松了一口气。此前，美联储决策者一直在权衡是否需要迅速采取行动，使通胀回到美联储2%的目标水平附近。本周早些时候，美国与伊朗战事重燃推高油价，交易员因而加大了对美联储7月加息的押注。

　　“这是一次范围广泛的下行意外，”Fort Washington Investment Advisors高级投资组合经理Dan Carter表示。“短期加息已经不在考虑范围内。市场此前一直担心通胀数据偏热，因此这应会利好债券，并使收益率曲线重新趋陡。我们的基准情形是美联储将维持利率不变。这份数据支持了这一判断。”

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