Circle(CRCL)股价震荡下挫2.6% 瑞穗下调其评级与目标价 指行业竞争挤压盈利空间

金吾财讯
Jul 14

金吾财讯 | Circle(CRCL)股价震荡下挫,报61.39美元,跌2.56%,盘中一度下挫近7%。

消息面上,受美元稳定币赛道竞争加剧影响,瑞穗证券将 Circle Internet Group投资评级由中性下调至弱于大盘,同步大幅下调目标价,由 85.00 美元下调至 50.00 美元。分析师指出,竞品 Open USD 分销分成模式具备显著优势,合作方覆盖万事达卡 (MA)、Stripe、贝莱德 (BLK) 等 140 余家大型机构,同时产品有望符合 GENIUS 法案监管要求,将直接冲击 Circle 现有盈利模式。Circle 旗下 USDC 采用储备收益留存盈利模式,与分销渠道分成后仅留存约 38% 综合收益;Coinbase (COIN) 作为其最大分销合作方,双方收益分成协议将于 8 月续签,若 Coinbase 加大对 OUSD 扶持力度,Circle 议价能力将持续弱化。

机构大幅下修盈利预期,调整后 2027 年 EBITDA 预期较市场一致预期低 25%,降幅超 35%,同时上调分红与交易成本预期至 73%。当前机构评级与 Seeking Alpha 量化卖出评级保持一致,市场多空分歧加剧,稳定币行业格局变动、渠道分成比例变化将持续左右企业中长期盈利水平。

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