金吾财讯 | 国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 于 7 月 13 日发布经济师专题论文，针对欧洲区域财政可持续性发布风险预警，若各国未能有效管控公共财政、落地深度结构性改革，区域主权债务规模将持续无序扩张，预计 2040 年债务总量将达到区域经济总产值的130%，规模为当前债务水平的两倍。多重长期社会与产业压力叠加，现有碎片化财政调控手段已难以对冲风险。
论文梳理欧洲长期核心压力来源，人口老龄化加剧养老金、医疗公共支出负担，全球能源转型持续抬升绿色产业配套财政投入，地缘局势变化倒逼各国加大国防开支，多重刚性支出同步扩张持续挤压财政空间。当前多数欧洲国家仅采取零散、短期财政调节手段，难以从根源遏制债务上行趋势，现有政策框架存在明显短板。
IMF 给出明确政策调整路径，建议各国决策者切换调控思路，推行具备前瞻性、改革与财政整顿并行的系统化政策，必要时对公共服务覆盖范围、公共资金融资模式做出深度调整。报告提示财政滞后调整将放大长期主权债务风险，提前统筹收支结构、落地长效改革，是稳定区域债务规模的核心路径。
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