金吾财讯 | 中信证券研究表示，2026H1，公用环保行业基本面整体疲弱、成本端煤价走高、收入端综合上网电价下降、行业层面产能过剩等因素持续压制行业；分电源看，该机构预计仅来水偏丰且电价稳定的水电中报业绩表现优异，火电、风光、核电等非水电源中报或普遍不佳。
在供给释放引发行业产能过剩且过剩压力短期无法得到明显有效缓解情况下，电力行业基本面短期难言快速触底并迎来反转。高确定性和估值水平将是行业内筛选配置标的的关键标准，建议配置经营稳定、估值安全的龙头水电、煤电一体化、估值对于行业风险已经充分释放的H股绿电和核电。
风险因素：用电需求不及预期，电价大幅下降，能源价格大幅上升，新能源装机不及预期，风光造价大幅上行，来水不及预期，电力市场改革推进缓慢等。
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