中信证券:AI产业趋势再次成为影响美股科技股下半年走势核心变量 关注Hyperscaler、应用软件&互联网厂商

智通财经
Jul 14
【中信证券:AI产业趋势再次成为影响美股科技股下半年走势核心变量 关注Hyperscaler、应用软件&互联网厂商】中信证券研报表示,伴随宏观尾部风险的下降,AI产业趋势再次成为影响美股科技股下半年走势的核心变量。展望下半年,我们对各科技子板块的判断为:1)硬件&半导体,料将持续处于高波动状态当中,市场交易广度持续收窄,并集中于产业链中最具议价能力&价格弹性环节,以及技术创新带来显著增量的领域;2)Hyperscaler厂商,宏观预期的改善,料将显著改善市场对其传统互联网、软件业务的预期。部分关于Hyperscaler厂商资本开支囚徒困境的观点,显然也过于夸大,参考META历史经验,华尔街态度、董事会压力或是打破僵局最好的途径,市场不应低估其资本开支节奏主动调节能力;3)软件&互联网,伴随市场对AI模型的逐步祛魅,软件&互联网企业的悲观定价正逐步改善,但营收增速的触底回升仍是股价反弹的必要条件,宏观预期改善+超过1年的业务调整&优化正在增加这种可能性。

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