【高盛：美联储加息周期开启阶段股市通常承压】高盛策略师称，利率波动加剧的前景将给美股带来潜在压力，历史数据显示，美联储开启加息周期初期，股市往往表现疲软。由本・斯奈德牵头的研究团队表示，盈利增长将决定市场中长期整体走势，但如果美联储启动加息，股市短期会承压。团队统计，过去数十年七轮加息周期开启后，标普500指数三个月平均回报率为-2%。不过这七轮周期中，首次加息后的12个月，标普500指数平均回报率达9%；除2022年外，其余每一轮周期12个月收益均为正。报告指出，资产负债表薄弱的个股近期走势与美联储利率预期高度绑定，这类股票对货币政策前景变动仍会保持高度敏感。具体来看，高浮动利率债务股票组合近期与短期利率呈现显著相关性。高盛补充，当前市场已定价短期加息预期，若美联储货币政策转向鸽派，或将成为股市上行利好催化因素。
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