高盛集团本利·斯奈德（Ben Snider）研究团队最新发布的策略报告指出，美股中长期走势仍将由企业盈利增长主导，但若美联储未来启动加息，股市短期内将面临阶段性回调压力。

　　历史数据显示，在过去数十年的七轮加息周期开启后，标普500指数在随后三个月内的平均回报率为-2%。但在上述七轮周期中，首次加息后12个月的标普500指数平均回报率则达到9%；除2022年加息周期外，其余各轮周期在首次加息12个月后均录得正收益。

　　报告指出，资产负债表薄弱的个股近期走势与美联储利率预期高度绑定，此类权益资产对货币政策前景的变动仍保持高度敏感。具体来看，高浮动利率债务股票组合（GSXUHIFL）近期与短期利率表现出显著的相关性。

　　高盛进一步强调，当前美国股票市场已基本消化了短期加息预期。未来若美联储货币政策转向鸽派，或将成为催化股市上行的利好因素。

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