The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0732 GMT - The Indonesian rupiah remains vulnerable given that the domestic market is facing weak investor confidence and risk premia, and not just a strong dollar or higher oil prices, says RHB Bank group chief economist Barnabas Gan. MSCI's decision to defer its market-classification review for Indonesia until November provides temporary relief but the downgrade overhang remains unresolved, Gan says in a report. Investors will continue to focus on ownership transparency, free-float adequacy, market accessibility and trading reliability, which could influence longer-term foreign participation in Indonesian assets. The dollar is up 0.3% at 18,100 rupiah.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0726 GMT - The euro could fall further as renewed U.S.-Iran conflict push energy prices higher, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Natural gas prices are rising and European gas inventories are low during a heatwave, he says. The euro could easily fall towards $1.1360 and potentially drop below the $1.1300-$1.1325 area this month. However, this could prove to be the low point of the euro's trading range this summer, Turner says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1408. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0716 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, rise due to inflation concerns as the U.S.-Iran war escalates. The U.S. launched airstrikes against Iranian targets over the weekend, and Iran attacked ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The fresh attacks push up oil prices, reviving concerns about inflation and the possibility of interest-rate rises by major central banks. Ten-year gilt yields climb 2.3 basis points to last trade at 4.906%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0707 GMT - The Middle East is more unstable today than it was before the war started, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. However, Jefferies remains optimistic in the short term that there could be a solution that would enable oil to flow through and put a lid on oil prices. Approaching U.S. mid-term elections puts pressure on U.S. President Trump, the global economist says. "Trump is constrained due to mid-term elections and the prospects of losing the Senate (as well as the House)," Kumar says. He could be "much more amenable to some version of a deal before mid-terms to keep oil prices in check." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0700 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in opening trade, tracking moves in their U.S. peers. The selloff is prompted by renewed military escalation in the Middle East causing oil prices to rise. Higher oil prices fuel inflationary fears, leading to higher bond yields. "With oil volatility making a return, so is rates volatility," ING rates strategists say in a note. "Rate markets are sticking to the previous playbook, whereby any move in oil is directly translated to higher inflation swaps and tighter monetary policy expectations," they say. The 10-year Bund yield rises 1.5 basis points to 3.057%, according to Tradeweb. The Italian 10-year BTP yield is up 2.5 basis points at 3.840%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0655 GMT - Bitcoin falls as further attacks between the U.S. and Iran weaken risk appetite. The U.S. conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian military targets Sunday while Iranian forces fired at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reports. "For now, we remain hopeful that both parties would return to the negotiating table and traffic would start to flow through the Strait," Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. President Trump could be more amenable to some version of a deal before the midterm elections in November to keep oil prices in check, he says. Bitcoin falls 2.2% to $62,738, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0632 GMT - The dollar rises after the U.S. and Iran traded new attacks, pushing oil prices higher and driving investors towards safe-haven assets. The U.S. conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian military targets Sunday while Iranian forces fired at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reports. Investors are looking ahead to U.S. inflation data on Tuesday and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 101.113. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0600 GMT - Further weakness is possible in French government bonds, or OATs, as Japanese demand for them is less supportive than it once was and French creditworthiness continuing to slip, says BlueBay Asset Management's Mark Dowding in a note. "So we might see further weakness in OATs, as we head towards next year's presidential election," he says. However, in a low volatility world, demand for yield and spread may contain any widening, with OATs now sitting at the same spread to German Bunds as the euro investment-grade corporate bond index, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0558 GMT - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that speculators are currently holding large net long U.S. dollar positions, says Kristina Clifton, currency strategist at CBA. Speculators are long U.S. dollar against all major currencies, but particularly against the New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and the British pound, she adds. Speculators have become more bullish on the dollar because of a hawkish repricing for U.S. monetary policy, she adds. CBA expects the U.S. dollar to strengthen further over the rest of the year because of U.S. economic exceptionalism. U.S. tax cuts and strong AI investment will also support U.S. economic outperformance this year, she adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0552 GMT - German Bunds remain vulnerable to renewed confrontation in the Middle East, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. In addition, various impulses in the coming days should keep markets on their toes, suggesting more volatility, also as summer trading is taking hold, the rates strategist says. Bond supply pressure in the eurozone will be coupled with 40 billion euros of backflows this week, he says. External impulses are expected from the U.S. on Tuesday with CPI data for June and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's testimony before the Congress and important bank earnings, Guntermann says. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.033% on Friday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0552 GMT - Economists are starting to better understand the impact artificial intelligence will have in the consumer sector. James Pomeroy, HSBC's global economist, says the free nature of personal-use AI tools is generating an enormous consumer surplus, with costs and time saved. Data shows that in early 2026 the consumer surplus generated from AI in the U.S. amounted to roughly US$172 billion, up from roughly US$116 billion six months prior. That could reach US$250 billion in 2027, which is 0.8% of US GDP, or more meaningfully, 1.5% of US consumer spending. These are not insignificant numbers, Pomeroy adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; Twitter @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0544 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in Asian trade as oil prices are higher following the weekend's military escalation in the Middle East, with the two-year yield hitting 4.239%, the highest since February 2025, according to Tradeweb data. Brent oil is up 4.5% at $79.43 per barrel. The U.S. conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian military targets Sunday, and Iranian forces fired at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as the two countries' standoff over control over the critical waterway deepens. The two-year Treasury yield last trades at 4.230%, up 2.3 basis points, while the 10-year yield is up 1.8 basis points at 4.586%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 13, 2026 03:32 ET (07:32 GMT)

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