The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2024 ET - JGBs are mixed in early Tokyo trade, but may be weighed by overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. Meanwhile, investors may focus on today's auction by Japan's Finance Ministry of about 700 billion yen of 20-year JGBs. "The recent drop in yields makes broad-based investor demand seem unlikely," SMBC Nikko Securities' Miki Den says in a research report. However, "short-cover demand should provide a certain degree of support," the senior Japan rates strategist adds. The 10-year JGB yield is up 1 bp at 2.795%; the 20-year yield is unchanged at 3.745%; the 30-year yield is down 1.5 bps at 3.890%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2014 ET - Japanese stocks are lower in early trade, tracking Wall Street's losses overnight. There have been developments such as the "intensification of {two-way) kinetic action by Iran and the U.S. on Sunday and Monday," which have made for a "very poor start of the week for risk assets," NAB's head of FX Strategy Ray Attrill says in commentary. Among the worst performers on Japan's benchmark index, Yaskawa Electric slips 8.8%, Fujikura drops 6.4%, and Kokusai Electric drops 6.4%. The dollar is at 162.39 yen versus 162.30 yen around Monday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 1.4% at 66287.24. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1952 ET - Australian inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.7% last week, snapping a four-week decline. The ANZ-Roy Morgan data may reflect growing inflation risks, as the Middle East conflict re-escalated during the survey period, the survey says. Still, inflation expectations have been trending down since April. On a four-week moving average basis, inflation expectations are at their lowest level since mid-March, it adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1938 ET - Japanese stocks may fall, tracking Wall Street's losses overnight. Domestic technology equities may be pressured lower in the wake of the sharp selloff in U.S. chip stocks, which has rattled investor confidence in the artificial-intelligence trade. The Nikkei futures are 450 points lower at 66870 on the SGX. The dollar is at 162.40 yen versus 162.30 yen around Monday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 1.9% lower at 67242.73 on Monday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1901 ET - U.K. retail sales climbed in June, helped by the World Cup, and despite record high temperatures, a report shows. For the five weeks from May 31 to July 4, retail sales in the U.K. rose 1.9% on year, according to a report from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG. "While in-store sales were stifled by soaring temperatures, the proportion of sales online was the highest of 2026, bolstered by well-timed promotions," BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson says. Retailers saw strong demand for fans and air conditioning units, while the World Cup helped home electronics sales, as well as those for food and drink. Yet, retailers continue to face political uncertainty, and the impact of the war in the Middle East could further undermine consumer confidence, the report says. (andrea.figueras@wsj.com)

1546 ET - Treasury yields rise as oil futures rally nearly 10% after President Trump revived the naval blockade in Hormuz. June CPI is due tomorrow and expected to reflect a decline in energy costs linked to peace talks. That decline is greatly undone by the recent escalade in tensions. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. Tradeweb notes the one-year yield, at 4.114%, is exceptionally higher than the Fed's 3.50%-3.75% policy target, underpinning the prospect of rate hikes. Fed Chairman Warsh has his first congressional hearing tomorrow. The 10-year yield rises 0.042 percentage point to 4.610%. The two-year increases 0.054 p.p. to 4.261%, the highest since February 2025. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1414 ET - The Bank of Canada is likely to leave its policy interest rate unchanged Wednesday but suggest in its statement a hiking bias, reflecting continued concern on inflation, Macquarie's David Doyle says. The economist is expecting further labor market improvement in Canada and an ongoing pickup in economic growth, paving the way for a first interest rate increase that probably will be in October. Doyle says a further half percentage point in rate rises is anticipated in the first half of next year. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1405 ET - The divide between memecoins and more functional "financial" coins has been widening, in terms of return on investment. According to data from Zach Pandl with Grayscale Research in a note, "financial" cryptocurrencies - those tied to things like DeFi platforms, stablecoin operation, and other blockchain-specific applications -- are positive versus where they started January 2024. Memecoins -- tokens with little practical application that often utilize popular internet memes -- half lost roughly half of their value, according to Grayscale. "Although we think promising consumer applications may emerge eventually, this Crypto Sector does not have many projects with strong fundamentals today," says Pandl in reference to memecoins. Major cryptocurrencies are lower, with bitcoin down 3.4% to $61,974. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1220 ET - The Treasurys selloff extends, sending yields higher, as President Trump revives the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and announces a 20% charge on every cargo. Oil prices and yields were already rising following hostilities in the region during the weekend and the trend gained momentum after Trump's post. The escalation suggests energy inflation could last long enough to impact other prices, boosting bets on an interest rate increase by the Fed this year. Crude futures rise 5%. The 10-year yield is at 4.598%, on path for its highest settle since May. The two-year reaches 4.251%, the highest since February last year. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)(The Bank of England monetary policy committee members could be cautious in the coming months due to rising oil prices, Barclays analysts say. "BOE Members Could Signal Possible Rate Rise as Oil Prices Climb -- Market Talk," at 1109 GMT, incorrectly said that Barclays analysts expected the BOE could signal a preference for a rate increase in the coming months given rising oil prices. The corrected version follows.) 1109 GMT - The Bank of England monetary policy committee members could exercise caution in the coming months as oil prices rise, Barclays analysts say in a note. The analysts expect the BOE to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%. The U.S. struck Iranian targets over the weekend and Iran launched strikes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. "We think the increased tensions in the Middle East and rise in oil prices this week will keep the risk of a further inflationary impulse forefront in the minds of MPC members," they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1147 ET - The situation in Iran is precarious and could escalate following the collapse of Trump's ceasefire, meaning prices for consumer goods could remain elevated for longer than expected JPMorgan analysts Richard Shane and Hong Zhang say in a research note. Any price change could lag the decline in underlying oil prices. And the resumption of fighting reintroduces a risk of energy price spikes that would squeeze lower- and middle-income consumers most acutely, the analysts say. They believe the full impact of these geopolitical shocks on the real economy has yet to be realized. Two forces compounding the geopolitical risk is a cooling labor market and an upward shifting rate outlook, the analysts say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1120 ET - Investors should brace for rising Treasury yields, especially in shorter-term notes, Bank of America's Meghan Swiber and Eleanor Xiao write. They say foreign demand for U.S. government debt is softening and traders currently betting on falling yields are bound to reverse their positions. The expected repricing could gather momentum this week if inflation beats forecasts. Swiber and Xiao add, however, that fund inflows offset some of the headwinds. The 10-year yield is at 4.598%, rising on elevated tension in the Middle East and rallying oil prices. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 13, 2026 20:24 ET (00:24 GMT)

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