金吾财讯 | 中信证券点评美国6月CPI数据称，美国6月CPI全面低于预期，零售油价下行，核心服务项环比零增长，二次通胀效应微弱。该机构认为美国通胀粘性不强，总体CPI同比已确认越过本轮峰值，三季度将大致呈温和回落趋势并于9月触底，此后在年末升至次高点并于明年3月快速下行。该机构仍预计美联储今年全年按兵不动，衍生品定价的加息预期还有进一步下修的空间，美债目前不适合配置型机会、短债好于长债，美元指数难以持续冲高但有支撑，美股的科技主线仍具吸引力。风险因素：伊朗局势演变或其它事件影响超预期；海外经济与通胀表现超预期或不及预期；沃什动作超预期；全球市场流动性或情绪变化超预期。
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