金吾财讯 | 美联储发布专题研究报告，提出人工智能产业持续扩容或将进一步放大美国经常账户赤字规模，核心诱因是国内 AI 算力基建高度依赖海外进口硬件设备。数据显示，美国高科技产业所需设备约九成依靠海外供给，供应商高度集中于东亚地区，AI 资本开支持续上行将持续抬升国内技术设备进口需求。
算力扩张必需的半导体、服务器、网络硬件均属于进口核心品类，AI 产业投资浪潮将持续拉动相关设备进口规模，成为左右美国整体贸易收支的关键变量。报告梳理历史规律，定向产业技术投资热潮往往同步伴随美国经常账户走阔，当前 AI 产业扩张路径与过往历史特征高度契合，短期设备进口增量将抵消长期 AI 生产力提升带来的经济红利。
报告同时提及进口价格周期变化，计算机、半导体类进口商品价格在疫情前数十年维持下行趋势，后续走势彻底反转。持续加码的 AI 投资将长期支撑技术设备进口需求，叠加进口产品价格上行，双重因素会加剧国内通胀压力。海外供给集中在单一区域的格局，也会放大供应链波动对美国进口规模、经常账户数据的冲击，长期 AI 基建投入将持续对本国贸易收支形成约束。
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