The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1017 GMT - Eurozone industry continues to show its resilience to the U.S.-Iran conflict, likely providing a modest boost to GDP in the second quarter of the year, Oxford Economics' Iain Simmons says in a note. Production overall declined 0.2% on month in May, but excluding a large 5.2% negative Irish contraction, output overall rose 0.3%, he says. However, part of the strength appears concentrated in precautionary stockbuilding--such as in chemicals, refineries and plastics--and in the Dutch semiconductor machinery industry, rather than reflecting broad-based improvements, Simmons says. "Continued disruption to the fragile ceasefire could also test this resilience," he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1014 GMT - A net 4% of investors polled in Bank of America's global fund manager survey for July expect lower global inflation. This is a big flip from June when net 45% expected higher inflation, it says. Inflation expectations were lowered as the fund manager survey's year-end oil price forecast slumped 17% to $71 per barrel from $86 per barrel in June on a weighted-average basis. Just 2% of investors expect oil to trade above $90 per barrel. The outlook on rates fell alongside the inflation outlook, with a net 1% expecting higher short-term rates, down from 34%, BofA says. The survey was conducted between July 2 and July 9. Oil prices have risen since then due to renewed Middle East tensions, with Brent crude last at $85.67. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0954 GMT - Eurozone industrial production was weaker than expected in May, with Ireland the key culprit, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. Output fell unexpectedly by 0.2% on month, after a 0.3% increase in April. Production in Ireland fell 5.2%, while it grew 0.8% in Germany and 1.2% in Spain. However, the small overall decline in May does not change the outlook for a modest increase in production in the second quarter, Vistesn says. Survey data has remained resilient, with the manufacturing output PMI edging up to 51.7 in June from 51.3 in May. "We think the official data will show that output rose slightly at the end of 2Q, lifting production over the quarter as a whole by just under 1%," he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0920 GMT - The Canadian dollar could fall if the Bank of Canada dampens expectations for an interest-rate rise this year in a decision at 1345 GMT, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. The BOC could signal that it will keep rates on hold, pushing back against market pricing for a rate increase by year-end, he says. BOC Governor Tiff Macklem could acknowledge the risk of higher inflation due to the Iran war conflict but will also likely signal scope to wait given current relatively subdued underlying inflation, he says. Trade uncertainty and increased equity market volatility on AI concerns could also undermine the Canadian dollar, Halpenny adds. The U.S. dollar trades flat at 1.4054 Canadian dollars. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0907 GMT - The cost of insuring Bahrain's sovereign debt against default rises to its highest level since April as the Middle East conflict deepens. The U.S. continued attacks on Iran on Wednesday while Iran said it struck U.S. assets in Bahrain and Kuwait. Investors are taking precaution due to uncertainty surrounding the conflict. Bahrain's five-year credit default swaps rise 1 basis point to 280bps, a 3-month high, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0905 GMT - The dollar has scope to fall further after its modest negative reaction to Tuesday's lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. "Despite the muted FX reaction, the scale of weakness in the CPI report certainly helps weaken on key pillar of support for the dollar--the prospect of a near-term [interest-rate] hike," he says. However, the re-escalation in the Middle East conflict and surge in oil prices makes it difficult to trade with conviction, he says. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 100.922 after earlier declines.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0858 GMT - The U.S. tech sector could benefit if oil prices stabilize and investors reduce expectations of interest-rate rises by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Rising oil prices have caused markets to price in a high possibility of Fed interest-rate rises in the coming months, and lowered demand for risk assets. Nonetheless, if energy prices climb further, inflation concerns could rise and reduce risk appetite, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0833 GMT - The Norwegian krone falls after data showed Norway's inflation eased to an annual rate of 2.7% in June. However, there should be good demand for the krone at lower levels, ING's Chris Turner says in note. The krone should benefit from improved risk sentiment after Tuesday's lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data dampened expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate rises, he says. Higher energy prices also support the currency along with potentially lower volatility favoring carry trades where investors borrow in low yielding currencies to invest in higher yielding ones, he says. "We have a one-month target at 11.05 for euro-krone, but the move could easily extend to 10.95." The euro rises 0.3% to 11.0949 krone from 11.0619 before the data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0744 GMT - Oil prices rise, with Brent crude trading just shy of $86 a barrel after the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iran. "Although Trump withdrew a proposal to impose transit fees on ships using Hormuz, the renewed conflict has pushed oil prices to their highest level in about a month, while broader regional tensions intensified following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. The escalation has undermined confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz despite U.S. assurances that the waterway remains open, reversing what had been a strong recovery in Persian Gulf shipping flows and threatening the rebound in exports from Gulf producers. In early European trading, Brent crude rises 1.2% to $85.78 a barrel, while WTI is up 1.1% to $80.19 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0732 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, climb as oil prices remain high and inflation concerns linger. Brent crude price rises 1.3% to $85.8 per barrel as the Middle East conflict continues. Investors have priced in increased prospects of interest-rate rises in the coming months from the Bank of England and other major central banks as a result. U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday reiterated there would be no tolerance for high inflation, although U.S. inflation data for June were weaker than expected. Ten-year gilt yields rise 4.2 basis points to last trade at 4.990%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0717 GMT - The euro's gains against the dollar in response to Tuesday's lower-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data are likely to be limited, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. European natural gas prices are back at levels seen in mid-March due to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and one softer U.S. inflation print doesn't make a trend, he says. In the absence of a major improvement in energy markets, the euro could struggle to break above the $1.1460-$1.1470 area and could fall to the $1.1360-$1.1380 area if oil prices rise another leg higher, he says. However, there does seem to be strong demand for the euro below $1.14, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1428. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0659 GMT - Bitcoin rises to a three-week high, extending gains driven by Tuesday's lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The data prompted markets to scale back expectations for interest-rate rises by the Federal Reserve, supporting risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Attention now turns to wholesale inflation data at 1230 GMT and the second day of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress after he reiterated his commitment to price stability Tuesday. Bitcoin rises 0.7% to a high of $65,209, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 15, 2026 06:17 ET (10:17 GMT)

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