金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，长十乙首飞/回收成功，成功打通全新可回收火箭技术路线。2026年将成为我国可回收火箭验证的关键年，建议观测3个节点：节点一，长十乙半年内实现翻修评估与复飞。长征十号乙回收箭体将开展全箭系统性检测与全功能验证，综合评估复用条件，规划半年内完成复飞，建议观测后续复飞情况和工程迭代优化进度。节点二，朱雀三号遥二年内择机发射，验证垂直支腿回收路径。朱雀三号遥二已于2026年6月29日在东风商业航天创新试验区完成全流程静态点火试验，各项关键地面验证工作全部完成，年内择机发射。若一子级垂直着陆腿回收同步实现，中国将同时掌握海上网系与垂直支腿两条互补的回收路径，成为全球首个同时掌握两条主流回收路径的国家。节点三，海南商业航天发射场多工位并发发射能力形成。海南商发2号工位已完成任务验证，最新的两个工位也已完成封顶。理论上单工位月发射能力可达2至3发；若全部工位并发投运后，或将支撑年度数十次量级的高密度商业发射节奏，建议关注发射场投运节奏。风险提示包括：国际局势失控的风险；需求不及预期的风险；产品大幅降价风险。
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