The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1054 GMT - The dry, warm weather this summer is expected to boost the U.K. retail industry, Shore Capital's Clive Black says in a note. Sales of "seasonal grocery, clothing, sunscreen, and cooling items like fans" is expected to climb, supporting the retail sector, he says. In addition, England's progress to the semi-finals of the World Cup is projected to drive up retail sales, Black says. U.K. consumers are likely to buy more grocery, food and beverages, and sports apparel due to the football celebrations, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1051 GMT - Investors need to alert to whether a rising default rate in private credit could cause systemic risk to rise in the economy, potentially sparking recession and a rise in default rates for all asset classes, Mediolanum International Funds Limited's Martin Reeves says in a note. Reeves doesn't expect this risk to materialize, however. "Unless we hit a material downturn, then the rise in default rates within private credit will likely be contained to within that sector," the head of high yield fixed income says. Though this will cause pain for some investors in alternative asset classes and on a few insurance company balance sheets. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1029 GMT - The New Zealand dollar is the best-performing G-10 currency since the start of the week following last Wednesday's interest-rate rise by the country's central bank, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. However, market pricing for 60 basis points of tightening by year-end "looks a bit too aggressive" before seeing second-quarter consumer price inflation on July 20, he says. The Australian dollar could recover some ground versus the New Zealand dollar if the re-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict fails to defuse, he says. The Australian dollar falls 0.4% to 1.1973 New Zealand dollars, having reached a 15-week low of 1.1955 earlier, LSEG data show. The New Zealand dollar rises to a four-week high of $0.5801. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1027 GMT - Japan's currency interventions have failed to stem the yen's weakness and policymakers appear reluctant to go much further, shifting the burden onto the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates more aggressively, Nuveen's Laura Cooper says. As long as U.S.-Japan rate differentials remain wide, incremental rate rises by the BOJ have struggled to alter the yen's direction, she says in a note. A central bank that tightens gradually while the currency continues to depreciate risks appearing constrained by politics as the government prioritises running the economy hot, she says. Nuveen expects rate rises in September and December. The dollar falls 0.2% to 162.17 yen but is close to the 40-year high of 162.83 reached on July 1, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1021 GMT - The cost of insuring European bank bonds against default increases as renewed U.S.-Iran conflict causes market sentiment to worsen. On Monday the U.S. continued attacks on Iran and reinstated the blockade on Iranian trade in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are grappling with rising geopolitical tensions, XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Sub Financial index of European subordinated bonds issued by financial institutions rises 1 basis point to 90bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1015 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise as fresh military escalation in the Middle East pushes oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns. President Trump announced the reinstatement of the blockade on Iranian shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. "Treasury yields remained at elevated levels with inflation concerns returning as oil prices rose to a month-high amid the increase in geopolitical tensions," Exness' Krisada Yoonaisil says in a note. The dollar falls, however, as investors await U.S. inflation data at 1230 GMT, followed by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's Congress testimony. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.4 basis points on the day to 4.623%, having earlier hit an eight-week high of 4.636%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 101.075. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0954 GMT - France looks set to become the eurozone's next major economic underperformer amid fiscal pressures and weak consumer demand, Leo Barincou at Oxford Economics says in a note. GDP is expected to expand just 0.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, below both consensus and the eurozone average, he says. "Just as Germany's economy is emerging from its slump, France's economy is heading the opposite way." Political fragmentation and a fragile fiscal position are expected to limit efforts to reduce the deficit, with potential consolidation dragging on growth, Barincou says. Household consumption is weak, hurt by labor-market deterioration and tighter fiscal policy. On the bright side, export sectors such as defense and aerospace should provide some support, he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0950 GMT - The cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default climbs as escalation in the Middle East conflict lowers appetite for risk assets. The U.S. and Iran continued attacks in the Middle East for the third consecutive night, causing oil prices to jump and market sentiment to deteriorate. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 3 basis points to 252bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Main index of euro investment-grade CDS climbs 1bp to 53bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0924 GMT - Markets increase their expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates due to a jump in oil prices as the Middle East conflict intensifies. The U.S. continued attacks on Iranian sites while Iran said it struck oil tankers on the Strait of Hormuz. "Surging oil prices reignited inflation and rate hike concerns," Saxo analysts say in a note. Markets price in a total of 45 basis points of BOE interest rate increase in 2026, 18bps higher than last week's pricing, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0852 GMT - China is likely to sustain solid export growth through 2H, according to Citi analysts in a research note. The country's export growth surprised sharply to the upside in June. The analysts note that this is mainly driven by robust demand for AI hardware and surging semiconductor prices. The global energy transition continues to bolster China's green-tech shipments, they say. "June's trade data reinforced our view that the export upswing is becoming increasingly structural," Citi says, adding that it expects policy support to remain "targeted and incremental." (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0840 GMT - U.K. data due Thursday will likely show economic output was unchanged in May, although strong underlying momentum should continue to support growth in the second quarter, RSM U.K.'s Thomas Pugh says in a note. Industrial production likely rose on utility demand due to a heatwave increasing usage of fans and airconditioning, he says. Manufacturing firms likely continued to front-run potential supply shortages in May, while retail sales climbed 1.2% in May. Healthcare should recover after a resident doctors' strikes dragged on activity in April. While growth has slowed since the start of the Iran war, the economy retains good momentum, Pugh says. He pencils in 0.2% growth in 2Q, on course for around 1% this year. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0825 GMT - A spike in oil prices could push the U.S. and Iran to de-escalate the Middle East war, BCA Research's Felix Vezina-Poirier says in a note. "Both sides are willing to flex, but neither wants the consequences of a much larger escalation," he says. As oil prices climb further, this could give way to defusing the conflict, Vezina-Poirier says. "There is a risk oil breaks above the $70 to $90 a barrel 'kinetic equilibrium' range, but such a spike would itself trigger the mechanism for de-escalation," he says. Brent crude rises 4% to $86.65 per barrel. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2026 06:54 ET (10:54 GMT)

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