The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0814 ET - Barring a big surprise, the European Central Bank will hold its key interest rate next week, though a hike in September isn't a done deal, HSBC's Simon Wells says in a note. Some have argued a single rate rise in June runs the risk of looking like a 2011-style mistake, when the ECB hiked twice but swiftly reversed, he says. "We don't buy it," Wells notes. Oil futures prices now suggest inflation could undershoot the 2% target in 2028. While the July press conference is likely to keep the door open, there won't likely be a strong signal, and come September the case for hiking could be weaker, he says. "We think rates could be on hold this year." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0806 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, are expected to remain above other developed market equivalents due to inflation and fiscal concerns, Handelsbanken's Daniel Mahoney says in a note. Gilt yields have risen at a faster pace than their U.S., eurozone and Japanese peers since tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up over the weekend. This reflects investors' concerns about the nation's vulnerability to geopolitical risks, the persistence of high U.K. inflation and the reliance on overseas buyers for gilts, Mahoney says. Ten-year gilt yields are up 4.4 basis points to last trade at 5.007%, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year Bund yields climb 2.5 basis points to last trade at 3.099%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0733 ET - JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns that strength in the U.S. economy right now could be undercut by "meaningful disruptions" that are already starting to boil up. The economy has been boosted this year by strong business investment and hiring, and has support from tailwinds like AI-driven capital investment and fiscal stimulus, Dimon says in his bank's 2Q report. But geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices are "shifting below the surface like tectonic plates," the CEO says. "They may remain manageable, but they could also cause meaningful disruptions when they shift or collide," he says. The bank is monitoring those risks and preparing to adjust of conditions change, Dimon says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

0724 ET - Bitcoin rises slightly as the dollar eases ahead of U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before lawmakers. "Perhaps dollar traders wanted to liquidate some of their long positions ahead of today's U.S. CPI data that could well impact expectations about the Fed's course of action," XM analyst Charalampos Pissouros says in a note. Inflation potentially cooled in June but any remarks from Warsh about not tolerating price pressures could boost the dollar by increasing the chance of a rate rise later this month as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions lift oil prices, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.9% to $62,681, LSEG data show. The inflation data are due at 1230 GMT followed by Warsh's testimony at 1400 GMT. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0710 ET - Investors could be reluctant to bet on a stronger euro even though the dollar appears to have lost upward momentum, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Optimism over German fiscal stimulus boosted the euro last year. Much of this enthusiasm has now faded on concerns that funds meant for infrastructure investment are being used to plug holes in budgets and downward revisions to growth following a surge in energy prices due to the Iran war, she says. While the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates again this year, this is already in the price, she says. "On balance, we expect choppy ranges to dominate euro-dollar into the autumn." The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1389. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0654 ET - The dry, warm weather this summer is expected to boost the U.K. retail industry, Shore Capital's Clive Black says in a note. Sales of "seasonal grocery, clothing, sunscreen, and cooling items like fans" is expected to climb, supporting the retail sector, he says. In addition, England's progress to the semi-finals of the World Cup is projected to drive up retail sales, Black says. U.K. consumers are likely to buy more grocery, food and beverages, and sports apparel due to the football celebrations, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0651 ET - Investors need to alert to whether a rising default rate in private credit could cause systemic risk to rise in the economy, potentially sparking recession and a rise in default rates for all asset classes, Mediolanum International Funds Limited's Martin Reeves says in a note. Reeves doesn't expect this risk to materialize, however. "Unless we hit a material downturn, then the rise in default rates within private credit will likely be contained to within that sector," the head of high yield fixed income says. Though this will cause pain for some investors in alternative asset classes and on a few insurance company balance sheets. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0629 ET - The New Zealand dollar is the best-performing G-10 currency since the start of the week following last Wednesday's interest-rate rise by the country's central bank, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. However, market pricing for 60 basis points of tightening by year-end "looks a bit too aggressive" before seeing second-quarter consumer price inflation on July 20, he says. The Australian dollar could recover some ground versus the New Zealand dollar if the re-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict fails to defuse, he says. The Australian dollar falls 0.4% to 1.1973 New Zealand dollars, having reached a 15-week low of 1.1955 earlier, LSEG data show. The New Zealand dollar rises to a four-week high of $0.5801. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0627 ET - Japan's currency interventions have failed to stem the yen's weakness and policymakers appear reluctant to go much further, shifting the burden onto the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates more aggressively, Nuveen's Laura Cooper says. As long as U.S.-Japan rate differentials remain wide, incremental rate rises by the BOJ have struggled to alter the yen's direction, she says in a note. A central bank that tightens gradually while the currency continues to depreciate risks appearing constrained by politics as the government prioritises running the economy hot, she says. Nuveen expects rate rises in September and December. The dollar falls 0.2% to 162.17 yen but is close to the 40-year high of 162.83 reached on July 1, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0621 ET - The cost of insuring European bank bonds against default increases as renewed U.S.-Iran conflict causes market sentiment to worsen. On Monday the U.S. continued attacks on Iran and reinstated the blockade on Iranian trade in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are grappling with rising geopolitical tensions, XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Sub Financial index of European subordinated bonds issued by financial institutions rises 1 basis point to 90bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0615 ET - U.S. Treasury yields rise as fresh military escalation in the Middle East pushes oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns. President Trump announced the reinstatement of the blockade on Iranian shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. "Treasury yields remained at elevated levels with inflation concerns returning as oil prices rose to a month-high amid the increase in geopolitical tensions," Exness' Krisada Yoonaisil says in a note. The dollar falls, however, as investors await U.S. inflation data at 1230 GMT, followed by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's Congress testimony. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.4 basis points on the day to 4.623%, having earlier hit an eight-week high of 4.636%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 101.075. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0554 ET - France looks set to become the eurozone's next major economic underperformer amid fiscal pressures and weak consumer demand, Leo Barincou at Oxford Economics says in a note. GDP is expected to expand just 0.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, below both consensus and the eurozone average, he says. "Just as Germany's economy is emerging from its slump, France's economy is heading the opposite way." Political fragmentation and a fragile fiscal position are expected to limit efforts to reduce the deficit, with potential consolidation dragging on growth, Barincou says. Household consumption is weak, hurt by labor-market deterioration and tighter fiscal policy. On the bright side, export sectors such as defense and aerospace should provide some support, he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2026 08:14 ET (12:14 GMT)

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