【上海钢联：预计下半年钢材价格整体以区间震荡为主】7月17日，2026“我的钢铁”年中大会暨钢铁产业链协同创新高质量发展论坛在北京召开。上海钢联预计，今年下半年钢材价格整体以区间震荡为主，难以出现单边趋势性行情，价格高低波动区间与上半年基本特平。地缘局势方面，美伊谈判持续进行中，但市场对此敏感度降低，预计油价波动预计逐渐趋向合理，上半年因地缘冲突带来的通胀溢价与能源利多消退。原料端，国内煤矿安全整改工作逐渐收尾，焦煤产量有序释放，原料供给紧张格局逐渐缓解，煤焦价格或冲高回落，但价格重心明显高于上半年；铁矿石供应保持宽松，价格走低；总体成本端相对稳定。钢材供需方面，下半年钢材终端需求延续温和修复态势，基建特续托底市场，制造业需求稳步回暖。同时钢厂将根据市场行情灵活调整生产节奏，延续供需弱平衡态势，难以出现供需大幅错配的情况。整体来看，下半年钢材市场多空力量均衡，缺乏驱动价格大幅变化的核心变量。
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