金吾财讯 | 三大航集体走高，中国东方航空股份(00670)涨3.77%，中国南方航空股份(01055)涨3.72%，中国国航(00753)涨2.02%。国海证券指出，2026年暑运受中小学放假偏晚而启动慢于往年，第二周中客流开始启动，近日受益台风压制需求释放而客流快速增长并创同期新高，且票价继续环比上升。我们估算7月上半月客流与客座率同比小幅正增长，国内含油票价同比下降约一成，暑运需求偏弱与油价同比压力影响航司7月盈利。预计暑运客流同比增长且客座率高企，考虑需求滞后启动，建议继续关注后续票价表现与盈利改善。三大航预告Q2淡季高油价下业绩预亏，估算油价传导比例近六成，或受益中欧航线票价大涨而油价传导好于行业与预期。预计航空“十五五”供需继续向好，且局方引导深入反内卷，航空需求增长将驱动盈利中枢上行的长逻辑演绎。推荐中国国航/中国东航/吉祥航空/春秋航空/南方航空。
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