The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0828 GMT - Investors' expectations of interest-rate rises by the Bank of England look too aggressive, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. Markets price in a total of 36 basis points of BOE rate increases in 2026, LSEG data show, due to concerns that high oil prices could lead to elevated inflation. ING expects the BOE to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% through out 2026. "We still see plenty of downside risk for front-end sterling rates," Pesole says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0828 GMT - Sterling falls against the euro, pulling from a recent 13-month high. An imminent change of leadership in the U.K. raises concerns that sterling could be overvalued in the short term and the currency could give back its recent gains, ING's Francesco Pesole says. Position adjustments and the sterling's appeal as a higher-yielding currency have helped lift the currency recently, but political uncertainty could now take center stage, he says. Andy Burnham is due to be officially pronounced the new leader of the ruling Labour Party on Friday and will take over as Prime Minister on Monday. The euro rises 0.2% to 0.8501, recovering after hitting a low of 0.8453 on Wednesday, LSEG data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0756 GMT - Gold prices slip below $4,000 a troy ounce and are on track for a weekly decline of more than 3%. Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran are fueling fears that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. "The recent price action suggests that markets are placing greater weight on the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates than on gold's traditional safe-haven demand, leaving gold vulnerable unless geopolitical risks translate into a broader deterioration in financial market sentiment," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. In early trading, New York gold futures rise 0.1% to $3,996.80 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0800 GMT - Corporate credit remains attractive as companies are in healthy financial positions and their bonds provide favorable yields, Edmond de Rothschild's Global Investment Research team say in a note. "Issuers' profitability--and thus their creditworthiness--remains resilient despite geopolitical shocks." However, investors need to be selective while picking corporate bond given the low credit risk premium currently priced in, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0727 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall, reversing Thursday's rise, as oil prices stabilize and inflation concerns ease. Oil prices are more contained than they were at the start of the week, providing relief over inflation fears, particularly after recent weaker-than-forecast U.S. inflation data. Demand for safe-haven assets such as government bonds also pushes yields lower as hostilities between the U.S. and Iran continue. Ten-year gilt yields fall 3.6 basis points to last trade at 4.938%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)Standard Chartered's Edward Lee said tariffs might continue to weigh on growth. "U.S.'s Brazil Tariff Move Spotlights Continued Trade Risk -- Market Talk," at 0439 GMT on July 16, misstated his first name.

0718 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields fall in early trade, tracking U.S. Treasury yields lower. Oil prices edge slightly higher but their rise is limited, with Brent crude trading at $84.55 per barrel, still significantly below the Middle East war-time peak of $126.41 on April 30. The data calendar is light on Friday, although eurozone balance of payments data for May and final harmonized CPI data for June are due for release. There is no government bond issuance due. The yield on the August 2036-dated Bund yield falls 1.8 basis points to 3.120%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0439 GMT - The U.S.'s move to impose a 25% duty on some Brazilian goods shows that while the tariff threat has faded into the background, trade risks are from over. Tariffs moved out of focus in recent months as the Middle East conflict dominated headlines, but still lurk in the background and might continue to weigh on growth, Standard Chartered's Edwin Lee says. The U.S.'s Section 301 tariffs on 60 trade partners are likely to take effect over the coming weeks, as Section 122 tariffs are due to expire. The broader risk is that the U.S. may seek to rebuild its tariff structure using more legally durable measures, says Lee. The midterm elections are a key focal point, as they could drive a more hawkish trade stance from the Trump administration. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0717 GMT - Bitcoin falls on growing risk aversion among investors, with equity markets dropping due to hefty selling in AI-linked technology stocks. Equities lose ground in Asia and open lower in Europe. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran also weigh on sentiment, with the U.S. on Thursday announcing strikes on Iranian targets for a sixth straight day. Cryptocurrencies have been helped recently by weaker U.S. inflation data and fading worries about U.S. interest-rate hikes, but these factors have been offset by higher oil prices due to renewed Middle East tensions, Trade Nation's David Morrison says in a note. Bitcoin falls 1.9% to $62,866, LSEG data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0714 GMT - Malaysia's electronics exports should remain strong as global AI infrastructure spending expands, while continued data-center development should provide further support to investment, says Capital Economics' Gareth Leather in a note. As a small net commodity exporter, Malaysia is also better positioned to withstand higher oil prices compared with regional peers, the senior Asia economist says. Malaysia's data-center sector is already the largest in Southeast Asia, with substantial further investment planned. While inflation may rise slightly due to supply disruptions and food price pressures, it should remain contained at a level that Bank Negara Malaysia is comfortable with, he reckons. Bank Negara is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged through 2027, given still strong growth and contained price pressures, CE adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0711 GMT - The resumption of the Middle East war begs the question of what has been achieved, says Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP. Iran is arguably now stronger having proved it can block the strait, its government is more hardline, there is no resolution to its nuclear ambitions and it still has missiles and drones, he adds. There are parallels with the Ukraine and Vietnam wars that showed a superior military power can be challenged, though they didn't threaten the global economy to the same degree, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0707 GMT - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in a tough spot. With the war in the Middle East pushing oil prices sharply higher, New Zealand's consumer-price inflation is set to rise to a two-year high, says Westpac in a note to clients. The bank estimates that consumer prices rose by 1.5% in 2Q, taking the annual inflation rate to 4.1%, from 3.1% in 1Q, it adds. Core inflation has been softening but remains above the RBNZ's 2% target midpoint. That is despite the downturn in economic growth and softness in the labor market, Westpac says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 17, 2026 04:28 ET (08:28 GMT)

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