今年欧洲行情高度集中于 AI 半导体、硬件、电气化赛道，剔除上述板块其余标的年内回报不足 5%，机构判断顺周期滞后板块将迎来补涨行情。银行业为核心推荐赛道，贷款需求、资本市场业务、稳定利率环境共同推升盈利能力，行业股本回报率升至 2008 年金融危机以来高点，充足资本支撑 4.8% 股息收益率与持续回购。
瑞银偏好欧洲非必需消费品、工业、医疗、德国本土标的，德国受益工业周期与十年超 20% GDP 规模的基建、国防财政支出；同时提示四大风险：全球经济走弱、通胀反弹收紧货币政策、地缘贸易冲突、AI 资本开支不及预期压缩板块估值。
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