金价跌破四千美元创八月新低能源推升美债收益率压制贵金属美国银行仍看好黄金配置价值

金吾财讯

Jul 17

金吾财讯 | 周四 Comex 黄金期货大幅下行，7 月合约收跌 1.4% 报 3985.60 美元 / 盎司，跌破 4000 美元整数关口，创下八个多月最低结算价；同期白银期货跌 2.1% 至 55.898 美元 / 盎司，分别创下 11 月 6 日、11 月 26 日以来最低收盘水平。中东地缘冲突持续扰动能源供给预期，推高国际油价与美债收益率，市场重新计价通胀与利率上行风险，资金偏好美元资产，削弱零息贵金属配置价值。

地缘层面，伊朗表态若美方打击本土电力设施，胡塞武装将封锁红海石油航道，市场担忧原油供应收紧，油价虽小幅回落但仍维持近一月高位。前期公布的美国 CPI、PPI 通胀数据弱于预期，6 月零售销售额环比增 0.2%，剔除汽车后的核心零售环比下滑 0.2%，经济数据边际走弱，但高企能源成本约束美联储降息空间，资金转向美元避险抛售黄金。

机构观点出现分化，短期金价承压明确，美国银行技术分析指出 8 至 9 月金价或延续调整，下方关键支撑看向 3600 美元 / 盎司；本轮调整仅持续 24 周，对比此前长达 121 周的上涨周期，回调空间仍未充分释放。中长期机构仍看好黄金配置价值，建议投资者分批逢低布局摊薄持仓成本，后续美债收益率、中东地缘局势、美联储政策表态将持续主导贵金属价格波动。

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