【券商聚焦】中国银河:中长期地缘风险仍将支撑油价维持较高波动

金吾财讯
Jul 20

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示,7月13日至7月17日当周,原油价格大幅收涨。截至7月17日,WTI原油期货收于82.49美元/桶,较周前涨15.52%;布伦特原油期货收于88.10美元/桶,较周前涨15.91%。美伊冲突持续升级,美军扩大对伊朗港口、交通节点及军事设施的打击,伊朗则加强对霍尔木兹海峡通行的限制,并扩大对海湾地区美军及相关设施的反击,市场担忧原油出口、油轮通行和成品油运输进一步受阻。与此同时,红海航线风险再度升温,油轮运费、战争保险和绕行成本上升,叠加中东炼厂尚未完全恢复、柴油和汽油市场偏紧,推动原油与成品油风险溢价同步抬升。

中长期看,地缘风险仍将支撑油价维持较高波动,若霍尔木兹海峡通行持续受限,或冲突进一步波及海湾产油国、港口及炼化设施,原油价格仍存在阶段性上冲可能。不过,油价中枢继续大幅上移仍受到需求偏弱和供给恢复的约束。国际能源署预计,2026年全球石油需求可能减少约100万桶/日;若海峡运输逐步恢复,中东产量与出口回升,全球原油市场可能在年底重新转向供给宽松。由此看,短期油价仍由战争进展和海峡通行主导,中长期随着地缘溢价消退、供应修复及高油价抑制需求,油价中枢或逐步回落,但成品油供应偏紧可能使下行过程伴随较大反复。

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