【券商聚焦】华泰证券:6月需求偏弱下价差有所回落 地缘冲突再起化工品或迎二次涨价

金吾财讯
Jul 17

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,6月末化工CCPI-原料价差为2896,较5月末下降224,处于2012年以来27%分位数水平,伴随美以伊冲突缓和,国际油价高位下行,多数产品价格均呈现明显下行趋势,价差亦有所收窄。6月提价产品主要受供应端减产等因素驱动。该机构认为受近期美以伊关系再度恶化影响,全球化工供给中断担忧再起,化工品价格或迎第二轮脉冲式上涨。中长期而言,全球石油消费拐点加速形成叠加阿联酋退出OPEC加速原油垄断化供应格局瓦解,原油价格中枢有望回落;大宗化工方面,25H2以来化工行业资本开支增速已出现明显转向,叠加“反内卷”“碳双控”等政策推动存量优化,以及海外落后产能退出,行业产能周期拐点逐步明确。该机构提到,当前化工行业在AI需求驱动、油价中枢回落、地缘重塑供应链及低利率环境等多重变量下,结构性机会凸显,该机构建议关注:1)AI算力爆发驱动半导体产业扩产提速,电子特气、湿电子化材、先进封装耗材需求刚性放大,国产替代进程有望加速。2)关注油价企稳后的下游补库行情。3)地缘冲突反复持续冲击日韩、东南亚等海外产能,国内企业有望加快提高市场份额,近期成本压力有所缓解。4)低利率环境下高股息资产吸引力增强,伴随资本开支下降,主动分红意愿和能力或提升。

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