The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0550 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge lower but stay near Thursday's peaks as Brent oil looks to stabilize around $100 per barrel, at least for now. Technical analysts at J.P. Morgan say the market could try to catch its footing near the next support level of 4.175%, "but we would like to see signs of seller exhaustion before we would suggest fading the move." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edges 0.2 basis point lower to 4.701%, thus staying below an 18-month high of 4.714% reached Thursday, according to LSEG data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0542 GMT - Incoming data point to a Federal Reserve staying on hold at its July meeting, and also a likelihood of keeping rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, say Morgan Stanley strategists in a note. "The Fed is running out of patience for above-target inflation," they write. "Inflation has to perform in the coming months--we think it will--or the Fed will switch to hikes later this year," the strategists say. Money markets price in almost two Fed rate hikes by year end, according to LSEG data. However, decelerating inflation may keep the Fed on hold this year, with the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. "We expect disinflation to keep the Fed on hold this year."(emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0528 GMT - India HSBC Flash PMI data showed the weakest expansions in private sector sales and output since early 2022, according to its latest survey. HSBC Flash India PMI Composite Output fell to 54.3 in July from 57.1 in June while remaining in expansionary territory. Growth was capped by an increasingly challenging market, competitive pressures, order cancellations, reduced client enquiries and shortages of key raw materials, the survey showed. Inflationary pressures intensified, but new export orders rose at a stronger pace. "Renewed tensions in the Middle East have once again resulted in firms building buffers to manage the uncertainties around the longevity of the supply-side shock," says Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0525 GMT - Eurozone government bond yield spreads remain under widening pressure amid renewed geopolitical tensions, rather than benefiting from seasonal tightening, rates strategists at Societe Generale say in a note. "The usual seasonal tightening is not at play as investors seem reluctant to carry long spread positions amid expectations of renewed issuance and heightened political uncertainty after the summer," they say. That said, the 10-year French OAT-German Bund yield spread is likely to remain rangebound over the summer, but weak fundamentals, heavy supply and uncertain investor demand warrant medium-term caution, they say. Italian-German spreads remain tied to oil prices, but the strategists still find the front end attractive. The 10-year OAT-Bund yield spread closed just below 82 basis points on Thursday, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0515 GMT - Unless oil prices fall significantly over the coming weeks, a rate hike by the European Central Bank in September is highly likely, while market pricing of further hikes might prove excessive, Pictet Wealth Management's Nadia Gharbi says in a note. "We continue to believe current market pricing is exaggerated... given the absence of second-round effects, the loosening of the labour market and the underlying weakness in the economy, which is being exacerbated by the energy shock," the senior economist says. Money markets currently price in almost 70bps of additional tightening by June 2027, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0507 GMT - TD Securities continues to see 3.00%-3.10% as a cap for 10-year Bund yields, its rates strategists say in a note. This is below a 15-year high of 3.212% reached on Thursday on the back of a surge in oil prices. TD Securities, however, acknowledges that lower summer liquidity could lead to more exaggerated moves. It continues to forecast the 10-year Bund yield at 2.80%-2.90% at year end. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0503 GMT - South Korea's trade surplus could top $30 billion for a second straight month in July after exceeding the threshold for the first time a month earlier, Citigroup's Jin-Wook Kim says. The economist expects the surplus to reach $31.90 billion, following a revised $36.10 billion in June. Export growth could moderate but still remain strong in July, with overseas shipments rising 65.7% from a year earlier in July, compared with a revised 70.7% increase in June, Kim reckons. Citi said earlier this week brisk semiconductor exports likely continued to drive the overall export growth, citing a nearly triple year-on-year jump in chip exports for the first 20 days of July. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 24, 2026 01:50 ET (05:50 GMT)

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