Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1030 ET - Bank of Nova Scotia sticks to its call for Bank of Canada rate increases later this year despite the threat of new U.S. tariffs. Economist Derek Holt says the threat of 50% tariffs likely represents a negotiating ploy -- something that USTR Jamieson Greer hinted at in remarks to CNBC. Holt reckons Trump may want a USMCA deal before the midterms because "he needs some wins" given fallout from Iran war and affordability. Further, Holt says Canada has shock observers to withstand this latest trade hit. First, a weaker Canadian dollar would buoy exports; and elevated commodity prices stemming from the war in Iran, which will lift national income. Holt adds risks are building that firms eventually pass on the higher fuel costs to stop profit-margin deterioration. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0848 ET - The dollar could remain little affected by the latest bout of U.S. trade uncertainty in the near term, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. President Trump's plans for new tariffs should broadly replicate the Section 122 tariffs which are due to expire on Friday, meaning the currency implications should be limited, he says. Moreover, it comes at a time when markets are pricing in U.S. interest-rate rises and Middle East risks are higher, providing some support to the dollar, he says. However, if trade uncertainty becomes more pronounced, dollar selling could re-emerge as investors become more concerned over unpredictable policies and the damage to the U.S. economy, he says. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 101.135. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0550 ET - Sandoz Group is unlikely to suffer a major hit from President Trump's plans to impose 100% tariffs on generics imported into the U.S. from August 2028, J.P. Morgan analysts say in a research note. The Swiss company generates about a fifth of its revenue from the U.S., and about 55% of this is forecast to come from generic drugs in 2028, according JPM. Generics makers might struggle to reshore manufacturing to the U.S. given pricing pressures, the analysts say. Trump's post might be the starting point for negotiations, they add. "While a degree of uncertainty remains over what a final proposal could constitute, we see the ultimate impact on Sandoz as likely to be limited." Sandoz shares fall 4%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0357 ET - Oil prices extend gains, with Brent crude topping $94 a barrel after President Trump minimized the prospect of immediate talks with Iran. In early European trading, the global oil benchmark climbs 4.1% to $94.72 a barrel, the highest in nearly seven weeks, while WTI futures are up 4.1% to $87.78 a barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply, while several tankers are moving to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, market watchers say. Meanwhile, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium stopped receiving oil from Kazakhstan after suspending loadings due to attacks on oil tankers at its Black Sea terminal, according to reports. "Factoring in the renewed disruptions from the Persian Gulf, risks to Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea, and developments in the Black Sea, one may argue that Brent at just over $91 a barrel is undervalued," analysts at ING say. "Particularly if these disruptions persist into August." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0004 ET - Malaysia's economic outlook isn't expected to shift significantly if the proposed Section 301 U.S. tariff is implemented, Kenanga Investment Bank economists say in a note. A new 10% duty would replace rather than be stacked on top of the temporary levy enacted under Section 122, effectively keeping the overall tariff burden at similar levels, they say. Malaysia could also retain a relative trade advantage if it remains in the lower tariff tier versus regional peers, the economists add. Investors are expected to focus on the final list of product exclusions and whether the planned 10% tariff on Malaysia is maintained after the U.S. concludes its review, they write. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

1446 ET - Ongoing trade-related uncertainty is going to keep USDCAD above the 1.40 for the foreseeable future, says TD Securities. The firm says that, so far, President Trump's plan to impose a new 50% tariff has triggered "fairly muted" market reaction. The reason, TD says, is the hefty tariff would apply to a small share of total US-Canada trade, thereby minimizing the duty's impact. USDCAD is up 0.26%, while Canada yields are down slightly. TD says the muted response likely reflects fatigue among traders about the trade acrimony between Ottawa and Washington. Traders may also be leaning on remarks last week from Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem, who suggests firms are adjusting to a new U.S.-Canada trade reality, the firm says. (paul.vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

1412 ET - Trump's new 50% tariffs should only affect a narrow slice of Canadian forest-product exports, says TD Cowen's Sean Steuart. He says in a report that major Canadian forest products are "seemingly exempted from the annex list provided by the U.S. government," and that only a few equities will likely be exposed to potential Section 338 tariffs. Steuart says the tariffs apply mainly to paper packaging, tissue, and certain specialty engineered wood products, while major Canadian exports like softwood lumber, OSB, and market pulp are excluded. He notes that KP Tissue is the most exposed, while Cascades and West Fraser Timber are only marginally exposed to the tariffs. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1357 ET - The scope of the proposed new U.S. 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods does not meet the threshold for Bank of Canada officials to consider rate cuts, say the economics team at National Bank of Canada. The 50% levy, which is set to be imposed as soon as Aug. 19, sounds hefty but covers roughly 5% of U.S. imports from Canada, NBC says. Yet, the economists say the new 50% tariff could have economic repercussions. It gives the BOC "more reason to remain patient and refrain from near-term rate hikes despite above-target inflation," NBC says. The firm adds that this new layer of uncertainty is likely to dent business confidence, which had been improving. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

1235 ET - Yesterday's adjustments to the Section 232 aluminum tariffs, which add an "incentive program" for companies to invest in U.S. aluminum smelters, is not seen as moving the needle for U.S. aluminum, which remains reliant on foreign producers despite 8 years of the tariff. "U.S. primary aluminium production has continued to decline over the years despite years of tariff protection," says ING Economics in a note. Not only does the building of an aluminum smelter require years of work, but access to "reliable, competitively priced electricity" is a bigger barrier for the building of new aluminum smelting. As a result, aluminum prices and regional premiums are expected to remain elevated, says the firm. 3-Month LME aluminum prices are up 0.9% to $3,169.50/mt. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1218 ET - TSX-listed stocks appear to be shrugging off President Trump's 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian goods. As part of the tariffs, everyday consumer products like cement, hockey sticks and wine have been hit by the new duties in response to what the White House called "discriminatory treatment of American products." The tariffs will take effect in 30 days and affect about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods. Still, some sectors and goods such as energy, potash and fish and critical minerals, will be exempt from the new tariffs. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index is up 0.9% and the blue-chip S&P/TSX 60 is up by 0.6%. Leading the indexes are materials and mining stocks, with the tech sector not far behind. Health tech stocks and tech services were the main laggards. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1051 ET - General Motors is working to quickly scale its defense unit, which is expected to log almost $700 million in revenue this year. The company is building a backlog of future business, vying for military and defense contracts, CEO Mary Barra says on a call with analysts. GM is also collaborating with "leading companies" such as Lockheed Martin to support the defense industry. "We're focusing our efforts on strengthening supply chain management, improving manufacturing readiness, and expanding production capacity in ways that serve the United States and its allies," Barra says. "Over time, all of this should make GM Defense a more meaningful and diversified contributor to our earnings." The partnerships come as stockpiles have dropped because of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and as the Trump administration and Pentagon officials have pressed weapons makers to accelerate production with the help of other manufacturers. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1037 ET - President Trump's tariff threat against Canada -- 50% on an array of goods, effective Aug. 19 -- was to be expected at this stage of trade talks between Washington and Ottawa, says Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets. "If anything, they're somewhat less aggressive than feared," he says. Talks between the U.S. and Canada to resolve trade tensions have largely stalled, while negotiations between Washington and Mexico are at an advance stage. Mendes says the new 50% tariff fits Trump's style of leveraging access to the US market to force countries to make concessions. He adds Desjardins' outlook had already incorporated a degree of trade uncertainty, and he expects Canadian bond yields, stock prices and CAD to weaken over the next few months due to elevated trade tensions. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 22, 2026 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.