高温&世界杯拉动需求 英国6月零售销售大幅超预期反弹

金吾财讯
Jul 24

金吾财讯 | 英国国家统计局(ONS)周五公布零售销售数据,6 月英国零售销售量环比大增 1.0%,大幅扭转市场预期的环比下滑 0.3%;同比增速达 4.2%,同样显著高于经济学家预测的 2.3%,消费端短期韧性凸显。数据同时修正前期数值,5 月零售销售环比增长 1.2%,4 月销售环比跌幅从此前公布的 1% 下调至 0.7%。本次消费回暖核心驱动来自季节性因素,持续高温带动空调、风扇、夏装热销,足球世界杯赛事则刺激电视等家电需求,非食品品类成为拉动销售主力。值得留意的是,6 月线下门店客流量同比下滑 8%,消费行为转向目的性采购,随意逛街消费明显降温。宏观层面,本次零售数据与近期消费者信心调查形成印证。6 月英国通胀水平有所回落,海湾冲突短暂停火令燃油、食品价格走低,就业市场降温态势也逐步企稳,多重利好阶段性支撑居民消费意愿。企业端呈现分化格局:超市巨头森宝利受益热浪交易回暖,电器零售商 Currys 电视、制冷设备销量大幅走高;但运动零售集团 Frasers 预警行业压力仍存,消费信心低迷、全行业库存高企持续拖累经营。凯投宏观副首席英国经济学家露丝·格雷戈里提示风险,尽管 6 月消费表现亮眼,但中东冲突推升能源价格持续侵蚀居民实际收入,家庭购买力下行压力将逐步显现,本轮消费反弹难以长期延续。整体来看,短期季节性红利难以改变英国消费市场中长期承压的基本面。

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