ChainCatcher 消息，据潮向研究，摩根大通 7 月 20 日股票策略报告指出，过去几周 AI 相关股票遭遇猛烈抛售，韩国股市从高点下跌25%，费城半导体指数下跌 20%，三星、美光等个股跌幅在 20% 到 50% 之间。报告认为这轮下跌的核心驱动力是技术面和仓位出清，基本面没有恶化。半导体相对价格与相对盈利走势之间缺口持续扩大，但 DRAM 和 NAND 供需紧平衡将延续至 2028 年， DRAM 现货价格仍处高位，美光也上调业绩指引，判断供需紧张至少延续至202 7 年。费城半导体指数 RSI 已接近超卖区间，年内累积的动量涨幅基本回吐。
摩根大通判断，一旦超卖信号确认，反弹窗口将随之打开，建议投资者夏季分批布局半导体。二季度财报超预期比例达97%，标普 500 超预期公司财报当日平均跑赢大盘1.7个百分点。配置上，摩根大通将股票配置从 60% 上调至 65%，欧元区配比从 8.7% 提升至 11%，行业层面超配半导体、矿业、资本品、汽车、保险和银行，低配软件、商业服务、传媒等“ AI 蚕食组”。地缘冲突方面，报告认为 3 月末以来的“逢跌买入”策略依然有效。
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