来源：环球市场播报
上周布伦特原油期货上涨近16%后，交易员们对追高持谨慎态度，担心如果美国和伊朗重启谈判，相关消息面可能迅速改变市场走势。不过，一项衡量原油波动率的指标显示，油价再次飙升的风险依然存在，而旷日持久的冲突也给脆弱的股市环境带来压力。
此前美伊间发生的一些冲突并未对股市造成太大影响，因为市场相信停火协议能让霍尔木兹海峡航运很快恢复正常。早期数据也为这种乐观预期提供了一定支持，但眼下局势已恶化到航运几乎停滞的局面。Polymarket的合约显示，海峡航运在9月1日前恢复正常的概率仅为8%，而6月中旬时，这一概率高达70%。
全球半导体板块的大幅回调似乎主要源于杠杆头寸平仓以及AI生态系统内部的快速结构性转变。然而，能源价格高企削弱了全球通胀放缓的预期，迫使各国央行维持紧缩政策，使得股市容错空间有限。随着燃油价格超过近月原油价格，油价上涨的风险正在加剧。与此同时，原油波动率已再次攀升至60以上。
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