智谱(02513)涨势扩大至33% 算力基建利好催化反弹修复前期深度回调行情

金吾财讯

Jul 21

金吾财讯 | 智谱(02513)午后涨势扩大，报1184港元，涨32.96%，成交额达94.53亿港元。

分析指出，智谱扭转此前持续回调走势，行情反转由算力基础设施重磅落地消息主导，叠加自身商业化数据形成基本面托底，对冲行业竞争、大额亏损、限售解禁带来的估值压力。此前该股经历多重利空压制，首批基石投资者限售股解禁带来流通盘扩容，配售股份账面浮亏引发资金抛售，叠加行业竞品融资、模型迭代节奏加快，市场下调赛道稀缺性估值，单日最高蒸发超2000亿港元市值，公司持续大额亏损与高估值形成矛盾，进一步放大调整幅度。

行业层面赛道资本热度分化加剧，未上市头部企业估值快速抬升，企业内部表态弱化短期商业化预期，市场估值模型持续修正。7月21日两条算力相关公告改变资金预期，1GW全国产芯片算力中心建成、收购中科加禾补齐异构软件能力，完整打通算力硬件与调度软件环节，为下一代大模型迭代提供底层支撑，完善全产业链自主布局。基本面维度企业商业化增长具备确定性，年内ARR同比增长15倍，模型调价后调用量仍保持四倍增速，开源模型核心指标对标海外头部产品，业务增长能力持续兑现。底层基础设施自主突破、商业化持续高增两大正向信号，抵消前期多重负面因素，带动资金回流，推动股价迎来大幅修复行情。

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