【专家称三季度或将成为降息降准的重要窗口】三季度,我国将迎来政府债券发行高峰,这一时点被视作打开货币政策宽松空间的关键窗口期。不少分析人士认为,货币政策加大实施力度的时点可能临近。市场对于全面降准降息等货币政策工具的落地节奏存在分歧。中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪认为三季度迎来降息降准窗口。张迪认为,货币政策将配合财政政策协同发力,保持流动性充裕,届时有望降息10到20个基点,降准50个基点。招联首席经济学家董希淼也判断,三季度或将成为降息降准的重要窗口,但预计央行在调控节奏上将保持审慎克制。也有不少观点认为,当前降准降息的概率相对偏低。华创证券首席经济学家张瑜表示:一方面,信贷偏弱背景下,银行体系对流动性的新增需求不强,降准的必要性下降;另一方面,经济向新向优背景下,降息急迫性也不高。
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