金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，7月中旬美伊局势再次升级，伊朗宣布再次关闭霍尔木兹海峡，同时美国也宣布恢复对伊朗的海上封锁，油价随之反弹。该机构认为，海峡经历了近一个月的短暂通航后，原油供应严重短缺状态短期有所缓解；而地缘局势反复下不确定性仍存，Q3进入全球石油消费旺季，叠加未来全球储备性补库，1-2年内原油价格仍有支撑，该机构维持2026-27年Brent原油期货均价预测为82/70美元/桶。中长期而言，该机构认为全球石油消费拐点加速形成，阿联酋退出OPEC加速原油垄断供应格局瓦解，产油国边际成本支撑60美元/桶底部中枢价格。该机构认为，中长期而言，天然气、新能源、煤炭等多元化能源消费加速推动全球石油消费拐点形成。考虑局势反复及补库需求或支撑1-2年内油价中枢，以及油价长期存底部支撑，该机构认为具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的高分红油气龙头企业，或将助力国内油气资源自主可控；中国能化产业链韧性较强，油价回落后伴随全球下游补库存，化纤、塑料等品类有望景气回暖。
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