0453 GMT - Commonwealth Bank is seen at Citi as having the best foundations of any major Australian lender when it comes to becoming a successful adopter of artificial intelligence. Analyst Thomas Strong tells clients in a note that Australia's largest bank appears to be ahead of rivals NAB, Westpac and ANZ on infrastructure, data, talent and culture. The latter two lenders could be hamstrung in the near term by their work to resolve legacy technology issues, Strong says. He thinks that Australian banks should benefit from AI due to the scale of their data, their dominant market position, and their narrow product sets. Analysis of offshore peers suggests potential for AI deployment to lift local lenders' pretax profits by 3%-5% across several years. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0409 GMT - Navigator Global Investments keeps its bull at Morgans following another solid quarter for the alternative-asset manager. Keeping a buy rating on the stock, analyst Richard Coles acknowledges that growth in sequential ownership-adjusted assets under management moderated to 6% in the June quarter, from 9% three months earlier, but observes that this occurred against the backdrop of volatile global markets. Overall, he tells clients in a note that the Australian company is well placed to benefit from structural tailwinds in global alternative assets. Coles attributes the stock's recent selloff to sector-wide caution on private credit, rather than a change in fundamentals. Morgans cuts its target price 7.7% to 3.13 Australian dollars. Shares are up 1.1% at A$2.405. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0345 GMT - Helia's bear at Macquarie sees the Australian mortgage insurer exposed to risks from declining property prices and higher interest rates. Maintaining an underperform rating on the stock, an analyst at the investment bank warns that Helia's elevated share price suggests investors are not pricing in housing-market risks. With the stock at near record levels, the analyst points out that house prices have already softened and that it is getting harder for borrowers in arrears to sell their property or to refinance. The Macquarie view is that Helia's earnings are at risk from higher claims reserves, higher arrears and lower cures. Macquarie cuts its target price by 2.7% to 3.60 Australian dollars. Shares are down 7.3% at A$5.23. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0334 GMT - QBE Insurance loses its bull at UBS, where analysts think that reserve releases are unlikely to counter margin pressures. Cutting the investment bank's recommendation on the stock to neutral from buy, the analysts tell clients that they see only limited release capacity. They believe that QBE's U.S. surplus has moderated since fiscal 2022 despite top-ups, and flag declining international reserve ratios. In Asia-Pacific, they warn that releases driven by compulsory third-party motor insurance and lenders mortgage insurance could be hard to sustain. The analysts say a recent rerate was justified, but are skeptical on further upside. UBS lifts its target price 8.1% to 27.30 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.2% at A$25.41. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0103 GMT - A challenging outlook for Australia's housing market keeps Macquarie analysts cautious on REA Group. They tell clients in a note that the News Corp-controlled real-estate advertiser typically trades at a discount to its long-run valuation against such a backdrop. While REA reported a strong 13% on-year jump in residential listings for June, the Macquarie analysts think this is probably driven by some investors exiting the market ahead of tax reforms. They see volumes being supported by this over the next six months, but still forecast a 6% cumulative drop in listings through fiscal 2029. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating on the stock and raises its target price by 6.5% to 165.00 Australian dollars. Shares are up 1.0% at A$162.84. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0052 GMT - NextDC's contract utilization update suggests upside to consensus expectations for FY 2028 earnings, according to its bull at Citi. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that a 73-megawatt increase in contracted utilization over the last 10 weeks of FY 2026 is unlikely to surprise investors, but points out that a contract like this is likely to be more lucrative. Assuming NextDC can generate 1.6 million Australian dollars of Ebitda per megawatt, Ahmed suggests the contract implies A$115 million in annual Ebitda. With a fast ramp up in capacity, he sees potential for 75% of it to be generating earnings in FY 2028, or A$85 million of Ebitda. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$19.10 target price on the stock, which is up 3.0% at A$13.44. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0021 GMT - ResMed's bulls at Canaccord Genuity think its latest acquisition has come at an awkward time for the breath-tech supplier. The broker's analysts say investors were just starting to get excited about ResMed's gross-margin expansion and potential to push earnings leverage, which may be challenged by the acquisition of the Noctrix startup. The analysts do see opportunity in trying to address restless leg syndrome, which is Noctrix's focus, but warn that ResMed shares are struggling for direction ahead of the company's 4Q update. Canaccord Genuity cuts its target price on ResMed's ASX-listed stock by 10% to 40.00 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.5% at A$28.05. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2357 GMT - Qantas Airways' embarkation on its ultra long-haul venture is seen at Morgan Stanley as the catalyst for the stock to re-rate. Maintaining an overweight rating on the stock, MS analysts tell clients in a note that its international business is the most underappreciated part of Qantas's business outlook and that consensus forecasts do not fully reflect the earnings benefit from fleet investments. This renewal and the nonstop routes Europe and the U.S. create a structurally higher-quality international business, they say. They point to increased premiumization, lower density craft, greater fleet flexibility, and improved network economics. MS lifts its target price 18% to 12.50 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$10.09 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2325 GMT - AIC Mines has been sold off after its 4Q output softened slightly, but Ord Minnett stays bullish and says there aren't likely to be any lingering issues from the quarterly result. Ord Minnett raises its price target by 5.9%, to A$0.90/share, citing AIC Mines's new outlook that includes an accelerated expansion of its Eloise copper project. AIC Mines now expects to reach 25,000 tons of copper concentrate annually by FY29, beating expectations. "There is now improved valuation appeal," says analyst Paul Kaner. AIC Mines's share price closed Monday at A$0.625, close to a one-month low. Ord Minnett retains a "speculative buy" call on its stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2318 GMT -- Car parts retailer ARB's share price has underperformed the ASX 300 index by some 50% over the past 12 months. That means its price-to-earnings multiple is now at its lowest level in a decade. Still, its bull at Jefferies says the business is intact. Analyst John Campbell attributes the sharp share-price underperformance to excessive valuation metrics applied to a consumer discretionary stock leading into a protracted downturn. "Fundamentally, we don't think anything's changed," Jefferies says. ARB isn't facing disruption and the market structure hasn't got tougher. "The Australian cycle's weak but at 16x PE in year three of the downturn, it looks cheap to us," Jefferies says. Its price target falls 17% to A$25.00/share. ARB ended Monday at A$17.41. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2310 GMT - Is Atlas Arteria's dividend at risk after IFM gained majority control of the toll-road owner? Macquarie thinks it could be. Atlas Arteria had previously guided to a dividend of A$0.40/share in 2026. "However, following the change in control and a new chairperson, we see potential for a return to dividend being aligned with cash flow from the underlying assets, as Atlas Arteria's surplus cash has now been deployed," Macquarie says. Its base case assumes a cut to the 2H dividend to 13.5 Australian cents. It also expects the dividend to be flat in 2027 and increase by A$0.04/share in 2028. That assumes no change in currency rates. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

Capital Management is shaping up as an option for Aurelia Metals, says Jefferies. Aurelia Metals had A$143.9 million in cash at the end of June. That was up A$49.2 million on 3Q and beat consensus hopes by 14%. Analyst Daniel Roden notes Aurelia Metals's liquidity stands at A$183.9 million, and the company hasn't drawn on its A$40 million revolving credit facility. "The new facility carries no cash-backing requirement, materially lower financing costs, and opens forward capital management as a live option," Jefferies says. It retains a buy call and A$0.40/share price target on Aurelia Metals, which ended Monday at A$0.29. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2250 GMT - Jefferies assumes AIC Mines's expansion of its Eloise copper project will incur capital costs of A$30 million. That's higher than the A$15 million guided by the company to bring Eloise's capacity to 1.5 million tons of ore a year. Still, analyst Daniel Roden says the capex forecast is "meaningfully below our prior estimated A$45 million-A$65 million, given key long-lead items have been oversized during Stage 1." AIC Mines says the expanded Eloise operation will be ready in the December quarter of 2028. That's around two years earlier than previously planned. Jefferies has a "buy" call on AIC Mines and raises its price target by 11%, to A$1.00/share. AIC Mines ended Monday at A$0.625. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 21, 2026 01:00 ET (05:00 GMT)

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