Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0004 ET - Malaysia's economic outlook isn't expected to shift significantly if the proposed Section 301 U.S. tariff is implemented, Kenanga Investment Bank economists say in a note. A new 10% duty would replace rather than be stacked on top of the temporary levy enacted under Section 122, effectively keeping the overall tariff burden at similar levels, they say. Malaysia could also retain a relative trade advantage if it remains in the lower tariff tier versus regional peers, the economists add. Investors are expected to focus on the final list of product exclusions and whether the planned 10% tariff on Malaysia is maintained after the U.S. concludes its review, they write. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

1446 ET - Ongoing trade-related uncertainty is going to keep USDCAD above the 1.40 for the foreseeable future, says TD Securities. The firm says that, so far, President Trump's plan to impose a new 50% tariff has triggered "fairly muted" market reaction. The reason, TD says, is the hefty tariff would apply to a small share of total US-Canada trade, thereby minimizing the duty's impact. USDCAD is up 0.26%, while Canada yields are down slightly. TD says the muted response likely reflects fatigue among traders about the trade acrimony between Ottawa and Washington. Traders may also be leaning on remarks last week from Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem, who suggests firms are adjusting to a new U.S.-Canada trade reality, the firm says. (paul.vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

1412 ET - Trump's new 50% tariffs should only affect a narrow slice of Canadian forest-product exports, says TD Cowen's Sean Steuart. He says in a report that major Canadian forest products are "seemingly exempted from the annex list provided by the U.S. government," and that only a few equities will likely be exposed to potential Section 338 tariffs. Steuart says the tariffs apply mainly to paper packaging, tissue, and certain specialty engineered wood products, while major Canadian exports like softwood lumber, OSB, and market pulp are excluded. He notes that KP Tissue is the most exposed, while Cascades and West Fraser Timber are only marginally exposed to the tariffs. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1357 ET - The scope of the proposed new U.S. 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods does not meet the threshold for Bank of Canada officials to consider rate cuts, say the economics team at National Bank of Canada. The 50% levy, which is set to be imposed as soon as Aug. 19, sounds hefty but covers roughly 5% of U.S. imports from Canada, NBC says. Yet, the economists say the new 50% tariff could have economic repercussions. It gives the BOC "more reason to remain patient and refrain from near-term rate hikes despite above-target inflation," NBC says. The firm adds that this new layer of uncertainty is likely to dent business confidence, which had been improving. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

1235 ET - Yesterday's adjustments to the Section 232 aluminum tariffs, which add an "incentive program" for companies to invest in U.S. aluminum smelters, is not seen as moving the needle for U.S. aluminum, which remains reliant on foreign producers despite 8 years of the tariff. "U.S. primary aluminium production has continued to decline over the years despite years of tariff protection," says ING Economics in a note. Not only does the building of an aluminum smelter require years of work, but access to "reliable, competitively priced electricity" is a bigger barrier for the building of new aluminum smelting. As a result, aluminum prices and regional premiums are expected to remain elevated, says the firm. 3-Month LME aluminum prices are up 0.9% to $3,169.50/mt. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1218 ET - TSX-listed stocks appear to be shrugging off President Trump's 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian goods. As part of the tariffs, everyday consumer products like cement, hockey sticks and wine have been hit by the new duties in response to what the White House called "discriminatory treatment of American products." The tariffs will take effect in 30 days and affect about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods. Still, some sectors and goods such as energy, potash and fish and critical minerals, will be exempt from the new tariffs. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index is up 0.9% and the blue-chip S&P/TSX 60 is up by 0.6%. Leading the indexes are materials and mining stocks, with the tech sector not far behind. Health tech stocks and tech services were the main laggards. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1051 ET - General Motors is working to quickly scale its defense unit, which is expected to log almost $700 million in revenue this year. The company is building a backlog of future business, vying for military and defense contracts, CEO Mary Barra says on a call with analysts. GM is also collaborating with "leading companies" such as Lockheed Martin to support the defense industry. "We're focusing our efforts on strengthening supply chain management, improving manufacturing readiness, and expanding production capacity in ways that serve the United States and its allies," Barra says. "Over time, all of this should make GM Defense a more meaningful and diversified contributor to our earnings." The partnerships come as stockpiles have dropped because of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and as the Trump administration and Pentagon officials have pressed weapons makers to accelerate production with the help of other manufacturers. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1037 ET - President Trump's tariff threat against Canada -- 50% on an array of goods, effective Aug. 19 -- was to be expected at this stage of trade talks between Washington and Ottawa, says Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets. "If anything, they're somewhat less aggressive than feared," he says. Talks between the U.S. and Canada to resolve trade tensions have largely stalled, while negotiations between Washington and Mexico are at an advance stage. Mendes says the new 50% tariff fits Trump's style of leveraging access to the US market to force countries to make concessions. He adds Desjardins' outlook had already incorporated a degree of trade uncertainty, and he expects Canadian bond yields, stock prices and CAD to weaken over the next few months due to elevated trade tensions. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1016 ET - President Trump is threatening to impose a 50% tariff starting on Aug. 19 on roughly $20 billion in Canadian exports, citing Canada's discriminatory treatment of U.S.-made automobiles, dairy product and alcohol. The Washington-based Distilled Spirits Council offers a lukewarm response to the tariff news. "We appreciate the administration's recognition of the significant damage" done to U.S. distillers, says council CEO, Chris Swonger. Nearly all Canadian provinces have banned the sale of U.S. spirits and wines at their government-run liquor outlets. "We had hoped, however, this issue could be resolved without further escalation," Swonger says, warning the 50% tariff could trigger new retaliation from Ottawa that threatens to further harm America's hospitality sector. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1008 ET - BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic estimates that President Trump's proposed new 50% levy on some Canadian goods to address discriminatory treatment of U.S.-made autos, alcohol and dairy products likely lifts the average effective tariff on Canadian exports to America to around 7.5%, from its current 5% level. On aggregate, Kavcic says that sounds digestible, although warns "some specific businesses and sectors industries would be hit extremely hard." He adds the latest Trump threat, which could be enacted on Aug. 19, is likely to weigh on business confidence, and serves as a reminder "that uncertainty on the trade front has not gone away." He says deteriorating trade ties between Ottawa and Washington "could even open the door" to fresh rate cuts. (paul.vieira@wsj.com)

0940 ET - General Motors is investing up to $1.5 billion this year to onshore production to the U.S. and expand its software capabilities, CFO Paul Jacobson says on a call with analysts. GM's stepped up domestic manufacturing efforts will bring its U.S. production capacity to more than 2 million units next year, as well as further reduce the company's tariff exposure, CEO Mary Barra says. "At the same time, our high-margin software and services revenues continue to grow rapidly, with 1 million new subscriptions expected this year, contributing to more than $3 billion in recognized revenue next year," she adds. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0923 ET - President Trump's new tariffs on Canada would boost the overall U.S. tariff rate by just 0.3 percentage points, according to a note from Capital Economics. Although, they will have a more meaningful impact on the tariff burden that Canadian exporters face, they add. "This specific tariff on Canada will not have any major implications for US GDP growth or inflation but, at the margin at least, this move may heighten concern among the FOMC that there are still more tariff-related cost pressures to come," the note says. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 22, 2026 00:04 ET (04:04 GMT)

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