Tiger Brokers

PCB概念震荡下挫 建滔积层板(01888)跌8.50% 产能过剩风险持续压制估值

金吾财讯
Jul 24

金吾财讯 | PCB概念震荡下挫，建滔积层板(01888)跌8.50%，建滔集团(00148)跌7.73%，胜宏科技(02476)跌6.09%，东岳集团(00189)跌4.28%，中国建材(03323)跌2.43%，芯碁微装(09630)跌2.06%，鼎泰高科(01377)跌2.06%。消息面上，多重中长期利空持续压制估值，远期产能过剩风险成为市场核心担忧，数据分析显示，近两年鹏鼎、沪电、胜宏等龙头企业持续百亿级加码高阶AI PCB产线，新增产能将在2026下半年至2028年集中投产；上游铜箔行业结构性过剩凸显，国内铜箔总产能180万吨，全年实际需求仅115万吨，产能利用率不足65%，低端铜箔厂商持续降价抢单，自上而下压缩中游PCB企业毛利空间。东方财富证券指出，PCB行业远期产能集中释放将引发价格战，当前板块估值充分定价长期算力需求，中报业绩窗口期资金将集中兑现浮盈，短期仍存在持续调整压力。上半年PCB板块依托AI算力行情持续大涨，多数龙头个股年内涨幅翻倍，板块整体估值已提前透支未来两年业绩预期，铜冠铜箔等上游材料标的滚动市盈率最高达481倍，高估值下市场对业绩增速容错度大幅降低，任何不及预期信号均会引发戴维斯双杀。当前处于公募基金半年净值结算窗口期，公募、北向资金集中减仓高位科技赛道，板块早盘冲高行情为获利盘提供集中离场窗口，存量市场无增量资金承接抛压，加剧盘面震荡下行。

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