金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，多晶硅能耗新国标正式发布，能耗限额相比去年9月的征求意见稿进一步收紧，将明显提高企业符合能耗标准的难度。新国标将于2027年1月1日正式实施，早于该机构预期，届时不符合3级标准的企业将被限期整改，逾期未改或整改后未符合2级标准的企业将被关停。根据硅业分会去年针对征求意见稿能耗标准的统计，中国内地多晶硅有效产能将降至约240万吨，相比已建成产能350万吨大幅减少31.4%，由于正式稿标准进一步收紧，该机构预计中国内地有效产能有望降至200万吨以下，仅超出2027年预计需求150万吨约1/3，产能过剩幅度有望大幅降低。多晶硅能耗新国标的超预期收紧，该机构认为反映出政府对光伏反内卷的坚定决心，后续反内卷组合拳有望持续推出，多晶硅环节反转可期，首选行业能耗最低、最受益于新国标的的颗粒硅龙头协鑫科技（3800HK/买入）。
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