ChainCatcher 消息，链上数据分析师 Murphy 表示，本轮周期因 BTC 现货 ETF 引入大量传统机构资金，市场参与结构已明显不同于以往。其指出，ETF 净流量本质上记录的是授权参与商（AP）在一级市场的申购与赎回结果，只有当二级市场买卖压力持续推动 ETF 价格偏离净值并超过套利成本线时，才会转化为数据上的净流入或净流出。
Murphy 结合 glassnode 数据分析称，1 至 2 月市场呈现“高成交量 + 小幅净流出”，说明当时虽然恐慌抛售明显，但仍有大量买盘承接；而 5 至 7 月则呈现“低成交量 + 大幅净流出”，更核心的信号并非卖压显著增强，而是边际买盘缺席，导致 ETF 持续贴水并传导为 AP 赎回。
他认为，这一阶段更可能反映机构层面的第二轮“投降”，通常属于市场出清尾部形态，并判断这或为散户提供了新的布局机会，但持续时间仍无法由当前数据给出明确答案。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.