金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示，大型云厂商资本开支占收入的比例由2023年的约12%升至2025年的约23%，根据市场一致预期2027年这一比例可能进一步升至40%以上，接近甚至超过互联网和能源行业历史资本开支周期的高点。在AI资本开支压力下，云厂商AI投资可能从经营性现金流转向更多依赖外部融资。我们根据大型云厂经营现金流和资本开支的市场一致预期基础倒算，AI资本开支未来五年有望创造约3.5万亿美元的外部融资需求。AI是金融“泡沫”吗？该机构表示，当前AI投资主体仍以现金流较强的大型云厂商为主，股权及次级资本也能够在银行优先级贷款之前吸收损失。因此，即使部分项目回报不及预期，风险更可能首先表现为相关企业估值调整、资本开支放缓和局部信用损失，而不是立即转化为金融体系危机。但另一方面，外部融资特别是私募资本和杠杆融资的快速增长也形成了金融外溢效应，如果商业化增长持续慢于资本开支，风险将由估值回调逐步转向信用质量恶化，并通过循环融资、私募信贷和证券化等渠道在金融体系传导。融资规模本身并非问题所在，真正的检验是能否在融资成本上升和资产贬值之前形成现金流的循环。
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