金吾财讯 | 中信建投表示，近期板块伴随A股三家快递26H1业绩预告，市场关注度提升，虽然市场对于“消费数据太弱影响快递需求→各家快递迫于压力放弃反内卷重启价格战”稍有缓解，但由于市场崭新的快递投研框架“尚未被共识”，因此市场仍呈现“买现实、卖预期”的交易结果。目前该机构仍然坚定看好快递板块投资机会。件量增速仍承压于去年高基数：去年3-7月正值价格战“惨烈”阶段，行业增速高达15-20%，叠加618大促后程需求回落的情况，高基数效应仍在，6月行业增速仍维持中低个位数水平，略高于实物线上社零增速。反内卷框架下，价格出现“两个分化”：行业价格同比增速在淡季，逆势连续第3个月上涨；各家快递品牌的价格走势“分化”（头部总部价格已经低于反内卷前，尾部价格则维持较高同比涨幅），电商大促定价策略“分化”。结合26H1业绩预告结果中，Q2单票归母净利“环比走势分化”（头部向上、尾部向下），充分支撑起最核心的逻辑判断【降价≠价格战≠没利润】。
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