金吾财讯 | 中信建投表示，全球航运市场进入阶段性调整，旺季上涨势头已逆转。7月SCFI综合指数回落4.3%结束十周连涨，运力紧张状况随新船交付和撤离运力回归缓解，整体市场正从抢运集中出货释放期转入阶段性调整。美洲航线：美西航线受加班船投放影响，舱位缓解明显，运价回调幅度较大；美东航线受港口拥堵和巴拿马运河水位限制制约，运力恢复较慢，运价韧性相对较强；亚欧与地中海航线：亚欧航线结束连续上涨，船公司加大揽货力度并下调旺季附加费，欧洲北部港口拥堵虽有改善但供应链压力未完全消除；地中海航线同步回调，舱位供应改善，部分区域供给偏紧。拉美航线：运价弱势震荡，暂未大幅下跌，船公司整体维持控舱稳价策略；南美东和墨西哥航线调整幅度较大，市场分化明显；设备供应方面40尺冷藏箱缺口尤为明显。亚洲内航线：运价持续下滑，东南亚港口拥堵改善推动区域内运力周转效率提升。风险提示：全球班轮联盟监管政策变化带来的政策风险；俄乌冲突持续升级下的全球贸易风险；伊朗地区冲突风险；燃油成本大幅度上涨。
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