招商证券:韩国股市去杠杆加速,A股政策底显现迎稳市信号

格隆汇
Yesterday
招商证券研报指出,韩国股市杠杆资金正经历快速收缩。韩国金融投资协会数据显示,全市场信用融资余额自6月24日的38.6万亿韩元历史峰值,至7月24日已回落至32.67万亿韩元,降幅达15.4%。其中,KOSDAQ板块收缩更为显著(降幅22%),快于KOSPI主板(-13.5%)。在科技股暴跌引发的强制平仓潮中,自6月19日以来累计强平金额达1.1万亿韩元。值得注意的是,杠杆ETF的收缩速度远超融资余额,成为市场下跌的高效“加速器”。以SAMSUNG KODEX 2倍做多ETF为例,其规模从6月高点骤降48%至38亿元,其机械式的每日再平衡机制形成了无间断的自我强化回路。外部杠杆去化虽对A股情绪形成一定传导,但国内稳市信号正密集释放,A股政策底已然显现。一方面,证监会坚定维护资本市场平稳健康运行;另一方面,北京国管、北京控股等多家央国企及上市公司集中披露增持、回购及提高分红安排,彰显发展信心。资金面上,上周宽基ETF大幅净流入超500亿元。往后看,随着稳市座谈会召开,监管有望进一步加大稳市力度。若后续市场超预期下行,稳市措施有望对标去年4月,从资金支持、央企回购、金融机构增持等多方面入手,以稳定资本市场并增强投资者信心。

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