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　　优然牧业（09858）盘中涨超7%，截至发稿，股价上涨6.49%，现报3.94港元，成交额1.31亿港元。

　　农业农村部最新公布7月16日全国原奶均价3.05元/kg，自2025年6月12日以来，奶价首次超过3.02-3.04元/kg底部区间，同时山东奶业协会监测近期散奶价格回升至2.8-3.1元/kg，超过合同奶价。此外，现代牧业近期完成对中国圣牧的要约收购，同时披露上半年正面盈利预告。华创证券分析认为，这一方面凸显了行业产能向头部集中趋势，另一方面印证行业修复阶段龙头盈利弹性。

　　国信证券表示，牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。华创证券指出，伴随供需格局持续优化，行业正加快脱离底部运行区间，进入盈利上行通道；考虑到奶价回升红利最先传导至上游养殖环节，牧场端盈利改善的兑现节奏与弹性均更为突出，板块配置价值持续强化。

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