The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1155 GMT - Markets lower their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months as oil prices fall. The U.S. and Iran paused attacks over the weekend, after two weeks of exchanging fire, causing oil prices to fall. Brent crude is last down 7.8% at $89.2 a barrel. Lower energy prices ease inflation concerns and reduce the possibility of rapid central-bank rate rises in the coming months. Investors currently price a total of 36 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, 11 basis points lower than Friday's pricing, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1143 GMT - Centrica's half-year results are a temporary setback and not a change to its story, AlphaValue analyst Pierre-Alexandre Ramondenc says in a research note. The British Gas owner is steadily investing cash into more stable businesses, including regulated energy assets, renewables and customer technology, the analysts say. This makes earnings more predictable over time and leaves room for the shares to gain value relative to peers, the analysts add. There is scope for Centrica to evolve toward a more diversified, RWE-like utility company, they add. Shares trade 0.6% lower at 162.05 pounds. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

1140 GMT - The message from July's Ifo business-climate index is moderately supportive of German economic activity strengthening, echoing last week's PMI data, S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Timo Klein says in a note. The increase in the index to 86.6 in July from 85.7 in June was the third consecutive rise, driven by stronger expectations, though assessments of current conditions fell a little. Still, most survey responses were likely submitted before last week's sharp jump in oil prices, Klein says. "Our mid-July forecast puts German GDP growth at 0.6% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027, up 0.2 percentage points from June." That reflects June's larger-than-expected oil-price fall, though continued volatility in the Middle East warrants caution, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1130 GMT - The dollar could resume appreciating if the Federal Reserve surprises markets with an interest-rate rise on Wednesday, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "We have been assuming that the Fed would leave rates on hold this week but one can't completely rule out the possibility of a rate hike," he says. A rate rise would send a powerful signal that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is serious about improving the central bank's inflation fighting credibility at the start of his term, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 101.316. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1128 GMT - The significant increase in the Ifo German business-climate survey is only of limited significance since most companies answered the survey before the massive oil-price increase of the last two weeks, Commerzbank's Joerg Kraemer says in a note. The index rose to 86.6 in July, from 85.7 in June. Most companies usually respond to the Ifo survey by the middle of the month, he says. The road looks bumpy ahead, and high energy prices are set to weigh on the German economy in the second half of the year. However, the increase at least shows the potential for economic recovery if the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is permanently opened, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0938 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields fall and the dollar retreats as markets react to an easing in the Middle East tensions, as President Trump's pause of strikes on Iran cause oil prices to slide. "The apparent de-escalation dragged oil prices lower, tempering inflation concerns," says Tapaas' Jonathan Squires in a note. "A sustained decline in crude prices could further ease inflationary pressures and soften monetary policy expectations." On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold, although markets anticipate a hike in September, according to LSEG. The 10-year Treasury yield falls 4.3 basis points to 4.636%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 101.264. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0923 GMT - The cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default declines as market sentiment improves after the U.S. and Iran pause hostilities. The pause has offered relief to markets and reduced the possibility of a near-term escalation in the conflict, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps falls 8 basis points to 258bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0902 GMT - A solid rise in the Ifo German business climate index points to continuing growth momentum in Germany, Philipp Scheuermeyer at KfW Research says in a note. Government reforms have driven sentiment higher, he says. "We expect a continuing growth momentum thanks to strong construction output and, presumably, even some growth in consumer spending." Still, with the peace deal between the U.S. and Iran on shaky ground, signals for the second quarter look less certain, Scheuermeyer says. Growth can continue with moderately higher energy prices. However, if energy exports from the Gulf region remain stalled for too long, the energy-price shock will ultimately take its toll, he says. Ifo's business-climate index unexpectedly rose to 86.6 in July from 85.7 in June. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0843 GMT - Malaysia is likely to be a key beneficiary of the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains, supported by stronger AI-related participation, with expanded re-export activities and increased Chinese investment inflows, UOB economists say in a note. They say the country has benefited from both long-term production shifts under the China+1 strategy and near-term trade diversion away from China. Looking ahead, sustaining these gains will depend on Malaysia's ability to deepen local manufacturing capabilities, move further up the technology value chain and create more domestic value as tougher rules of origin and anti-transshipment measures take effect, they add. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0833 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, fall as oil prices slide due to a pause in Middle East hostilities, but they are also helped lower after Prime Minister Andy Burnham indicated possible cut to welfare spending. In an interview with the BBC, Burnham said he wants to make it harder for people to claim benefits, which could calm concerns that his government could intend to increase public spending. Ten-year gilt yields are down 5.4 basis points to last trade at 4.984%, having hit a one week-low of 4.971% earlier in the session, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0819 GMT - European gas prices tumble on hopes that a pause in fighting between the U.S. and Iran could pave the way for renewed diplomatic efforts and restore flows of liquefied natural gas. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is down 6.2% to 59.70 euros a megawatt-hour, though it remains more than 46% higher on the month. Europe is facing a challenging race to secure LNG supplies as Qatar's export restrictions coincide with stronger Asian demand and above-average temperatures driving higher gas consumption. With storage levels at 54%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 70%, markets are concerned that Europe could struggle to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter heating season. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0815 GMT - The euro remains vulnerable to renewed falls even as oil prices ease after the U.S. and Iran halted attacks, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The euro's rise above $1.14 looks "somewhat optimistic" given the absence of a clear de-escalation path, he says. "Any renewed military strikes could quickly send Brent crude back to $100 per barrel and the euro below $1.1380." Potential dollar buying ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision Wednesday could also weigh on the euro versus the dollar, he says. Elevated gas prices are another reason to remain cautious on the euro unless tensions ease quickly, he says. The euro rises 0.3% to $1.1402.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 27, 2026 07:55 ET (11:55 GMT)

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