OPENING CALL
U.S. stocks were poised to start trading on a positive note as futures were gaining before the opening bell.
After President Trump paused additional strikes on Iran , oil prices fell, easing inflation concerns. Bond yields and the dollar
also fell.
Attention will be focused on Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and whether the Fed will offer any clues on which direction rates will take in September.
Though the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold this week, Danske Bank anticipates investors will be focused on the vote split
of Fed policymakers.
"We think the most likely outcome is 2-4 votes in favor of a hike, which will not be enough for a hike," it said.
The impact of the upcoming
Fed decision will hinge on how Chairman Kevin Warsh frames the decision and path ahead, according to Goldman Sachs. Money markets price in a 31.5% probability of a rate hike this week, while the majority of the market anticipates unchanged rates.
Beyond monetary policy, investors will keep a keen eye on tech earnings including results from Apple, Microsoft and Meta as an overall unsettled feeling
spreads among some market participants.
On Thursday, investors will get their hands on second-quarter GDP data.
Stocks to Watch
Chevron shares fell 2.5% and ExxonMobil Holdings slipped 2.9% as oil prices retreated after Middle East tensions eased.
Nvidia gained 1% after the company said it was in talks with OpenAI to provide $250 billion
in financing for a data center project.
Watch For:
U.S. Durable Goods for June
Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:
- America's Big Cities Are Rapidly Losing Kids
- Big Companies Are Starting to Hire Again, Defying Predictions of AI Wipeout
- Paramount Wanted to Close Its Warner Deal Quickly. Now It's in Limbo.
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar
fell against a basket of currencies as oil prices declined and demand for safe havens waned.
The euro
rose against the dollar but it remained vulnerable, ING said.
"Any renewed military strikes could quickly send Brent crude back to $100 per barrel and the euro below $1.1380," it said, adding that potential dollar buying ahead of the Fed decision could also weigh on the currency.
Sterling
fell against the euro and the pullback has further room to run as the Bank of England should refrain from raising interest rates this year, ING said.
Bonds:
Treasury yields fell
as Trump attempted to revive diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy:
Oil prices plunged
more than 5% after the U.S. paused military strikes against Iran, raising the prospect of renewed diplomatic efforts to end the five-month long conflict.
Natural gas
European gas prices
tumbled on hopes that a pause in fighting between the U.S. and Iran could pave the way for renewed diplomatic efforts.
Metals:
Gold prices
rose after the U.S. paused military strikes against Iran.
"The easing in geopolitical tensions has reduced inflation concerns and could lessen pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further, providing near-term support for gold ahead of this week's closely watched Fed meeting," MUFG.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Maker of Chips Sought by Apple Soars to No. 1 in China Stock Market
SINGAPORE-Memory-chip maker CXMT soared in its stock-market debut to become the most valuable company listed in mainland China, capping the rise of an upstart whose products are sought by Apple.
The company, founded just a decade ago, sported a market capitalization equivalent to $484 billion after its opening day of trading in Shanghai, topping Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become the most valuable company listed in a mainland Chinese market. CXMT's market value was just short of China-based internet company Tencent, which is listed in Hong Kong and is the most valuable company in that market.
Why Google Cloud's Hot Sales Can't Save the Stock
Big Tech earnings season is just getting under way. The early loser is Alphabet's stock. Ironically, the winner comes out of Alphabet too-it's the company's soaring Google Cloud.
Investors are focused on the outsize capital expenditures that Google Cloud and its competitors need to support the rapid growth of the artificial-intelligence cloud.
Waymo Is Racking Up Thousands of Dollars of Parking Fines in Austin
Finding parking in a city is a headache for most drivers, and the same goes for self-driving robotaxis.
In Austin, Texas, Waymo's robotaxis have struggled to follow parking rules. Since the company came to town in 2024, its vehicles have been fined $9,325 in parking tickets, according to documents The Wall Street Journal obtained through an open-records request.
Sazerac Wants Another Shot at Jack Daniel's Maker Brown-Forman
Sazerac isn't taking no for an answer.
The maker of BuzzBallz cocktails and Buffalo Trace bourbon has sent a letter to a group of Brown-Forman shareholders asking them to reconsider a $15 billion buyout offer that had been rebuffed. The group-Class A shareholders-includes members of the Brown family, descendants of the company's founder who currently control its voting power.
Federal Probe Into Dodgers Owner's Financial Empire Was Sparked by Whistleblower
The problems for Mark Walter's sprawling sports and finance empire began with an internal whistleblower complaint.
The complaint questioned how Walter's asset-management firm, Guggenheim Investments, booked revenue from dealings with insurance companies and had drawn interest from federal prosecutors by last year, people familiar with the matter said.
Investors May Pay a Price for the Fed's Zipped Lip
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its July 28-29 policy meeting. Yet, traders are still pricing in a 38% chance of a interest-rate hike as of Friday, up from 12.8% a week ago, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
The disconnect may be the new normal under Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has disavowed forward guidance, or public commentary on the Fed's economic and interest-rate outlook. Investors could pay the price in increased uncertainty and more market volatility for both stocks and bonds.
German Business Sentiment Improves, Shrugging Off Middle East Uncertainties
Confidence among German firms picked up a little this month as expectations for business climbed, though the roller-coaster ride of oil prices in recent weeks suggests that this recovery could be fragile.
The Ifo Institute said Monday that its business-climate index, based on around 9,000 monthly responses from businesses, rose to 86.6 in July from 85.7 in June. That marked a third straight monthly rise and was better than consensus expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, who expected sentiment to hold steady.
Indonesia Central Bank Chief Resigns Unexpectedly
Long-serving Bank Indonesia Gov. Perry Warjiyo stepped down in a surprise move, the latest leadership change under the Prabowo administration that is likely to stoke worries about central bank independence and economic policymaking in Southeast Asia's largest nation.
State Secretary Minister Prasetyo Hadi announced the resignation at a press conference in Jakarta on Monday, which wasn't attended by Warjiyo. He said President Prabowo Subianto has accepted the central bank chief's resignation.
Three Dead and Four People Wounded in Seattle Shooting
Police arrested a suspect after three people were killed and at least four others were wounded Sunday in a shooting at a Seattle food festival, authorities said.
The Seattle Police Department said shots were fired at the Seattle Center, home to the city's famous Space Needle, where the Bite of Seattle food festival was being held.
Wildfires Rage Across Europe, Threatening France's Bordeaux Region
PARIS-Firefighters were struggling Sunday to contain wildfires pushing dangerously close to the city of Bordeaux in southwestern France, leading authorities to evacuate tens of thousands of people from the surrounding region.
The fire, which began on Wednesday, has burned more than 100,000 acres in the Gironde region, a popular tourist destination, and destroyed 240 houses. On Sunday, the fire was just 10 miles away from the Bordeaux metropolitan area, which is home to more than 850,000 people, according to local authorities.
Wisconsin's Warning on Election Bets Intensifies Fight With Prediction Markets
Brian Hildebrand was glad when Wisconsin officials recently warned that voters can't legally cast a ballot in an election they bet on.
The 39-year-old Milwaukee resident sees the prospect of people betting on elections as a "perversion of democracy"-especially in a swing state like Wisconsin where a lot is at stake.
Unreleased Documentary Footage Captures Graham's Obsessive Push for Iran War
Sen. Lindsey Graham planned to travel to Florida in early March to persuade President Trump to join Israel in the bombing of Hezbollah in Lebanon-until a friend talked him out of it.
The friend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told him on a call before the trip that bringing the U.S. into the operation, in the midst of the Iran war, was going too far, too fast, according to unreleased footage from a documentary about the South Carolina Republican lawmaker that was being filmed before he died earlier this month.
pierre.bertrand@wsj.com
TODAY IN CANADA
2Q Earnings:
Celestica Inc.
Gibson Energy
Economic Indicators $(ET)$:
Nothing major scheduled
Stocks to Watch:
K2 Capital Acquisition II Corp. Files for $150M IPO
Expected Major Events for Monday
05:00/JPN: May Indexes of Business Conditions - Revision
08:00/GER: Jul ifo Business Climate Index
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July 27, 2026 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT)
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