金吾财讯 | 中信证券研究指，若至远东地区原油运输红海绕行成为常态，航距预计增长130.3%，苏伊士吃水限制导致单船装载或下降20%~25%，多重因素或导致较既有红海航线所需VLCC翻倍以上。短期延布及海峡通行需进一步跟踪，但通行效率的下降有望抬升VLCC运价中枢。STS转运逐渐成为湾内原油输出的主要运输方式，6月阿联酋和科威特同期原油产量分别环比增长75.8%/153.4%，份额诉求带来的产油国放量的超预期或成为补库前货盘有力支撑。同时美以伊战争以来全球原油库存快速下降，美国SPR已经释放1.03亿桶，为1983年后的最低水平。考虑中东产油国的清库需求、份额诉求和下游补库需求的持续累积，或为周期中期景气度重要支撑。风险因素：补库需求低于预期，地缘冲突影响超预期，霍尔木兹海峡通行恢复低于预期。
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