美日韩股市暴跌的三重逻辑

格隆汇
Jul 28
隔夜美股芯片股遭遇剧烈重挫,引发连锁反应,拖累今日的日韩股市全线崩盘。分析人士指出,美股、韩股和日股集体暴跌有三重逻辑: 第一层:AI资本支出循环逻辑破裂,英伟达信用风险暴露 英伟达不仅与SK集团达成5000亿美元AI合作,更在探讨为OpenAI提供高达2500亿美元的融资兜底担保,此举重燃了市场对AI资本支出循环现金流逻辑的疑虑。英伟达5年期CDS单日飙升14bp至82bp,创历史最大日内涨幅。市场意识到,英伟达已不再是无风险、躺赚的“纯粹卖铲人”,而是降级为整条AI激进负债链上的隐性无限责任担保人。一旦下游AI应用变现不及预期,英伟达将被迫承担致命的连带债务风险。 第二层:中国供应链冲击 长鑫科技A股上市首日暴涨465%,成为中国市值最大A股。中国在DRAM领域加速自给自足,全球存储芯片竞争格局恶化。摩根士丹利等机构此前已对“行业周期触顶、第四季度内存合同价见顶”发出严重警告。SK海力士韩国市场今日一度大跌10%,隔夜美股ADR股价破发创上市以来新低。 第三层:开源模型冲击 中国Kimi K3 等高性能开源模型的出现,填平了闭源大模型赖以维持高定价的技术护城河。开源模型逼美国AI巨头打补贴战,OpenAI和Anthropic收入预期下调,高估值承压。这又再次回到第一层中提到的:一旦下游AI应用变现不及预期,英伟达将被迫承担致命的连带债务风险。 上述三重担忧,构成了一个完整的系统循环。

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