中信建投:容量保障机制重塑火电板块价值 首推成本可控、机组高效的REITs资产

智通财经
Jul 25
【中信建投:容量保障机制重塑火电板块价值 首推成本可控、机组高效的REITs资产】中信建投研报表示,首批煤电REITs获受理,火电资产证券化由燃气发电进一步拓展至燃煤发电。新能源已基本承接新增电量,火电利用小时中枢下行;火电仍承担基础供电,其边际价值更多体现为容量保障和灵活调节。容量电价将部分固定成本回收与发电量脱钩,叠加供热等收入,为项目现金流提供托底;但容量收入难以替代电量电价,项目盈利和估值仍由区域供需与电价、燃料成本及机组效率共同决定。首批两单煤电REITs 2026年预测分派率为7.56%—7.85%,但短期分派率不等同于全周期回报,仍需结合资产久期、资本开支及全周期IRR判断。投资层面,应从区域供需与机制、收支结构和资产禀赋三个层面筛选,首推收益机制清晰、燃料成本可控、机组效率较高且调节能力较强的火电资产。

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