荷兰国际:英国央行今年铁定不动 新首相承诺让市场捏一把汗

格隆汇
Jul 28
荷兰国际集团经济学家认为英国央行最新预测将显示通胀“在今年下半年至明年初接近3%”,而这一水平仍在央行的容忍范围内。在此背景下,其基准预期是“英国央行在2026年全年按兵不动”,政策宽松将推迟至下一周期。荷兰国际银行表示,其“目前预测从2027年春季开始将有两次降息”,但强调这一路径“取决于秋季预算案中不会出现实质性财政刺激”。此外,英镑近期承压,因投资者对新首相伯纳姆支出承诺的融资来源持谨慎态度。伯纳姆宣布对交通票价和电费实施上限措施,引发市场对公共财政进一步承压的担忧——在2022年特拉斯财政风波之后,这是英国极为敏感的问题。

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