日本央行料将按兵不动,评估6月加息影响

格隆汇
8 hours ago
日本央行本周可能暂缓行动,以评估此前将政策利率上调至30年来最高水平后的影响。市场将密切关注该行最新的经济与通胀预测,从中寻找有关未来行动时机和节奏的线索。外界普遍预计,日本央行将在周五结束为期两天的会议时,维持1%的政策利率不变。在6月的上一次会议上,该行将利率上调至31年高点,理由是油价上涨可能导致潜在通胀率超过2%的目标。尽管对通胀的担忧持续存在,但日本央行进一步收紧政策的决心未变。市场已将年底前至少再加息一次的预期纳入定价。尽管中东局势的不确定性导致原油价格再次上涨,但日本央行决策者认为日本经济大幅下滑的风险较低。他们预计,日本政府将通过绕开霍尔木兹海峡的运输路线确保能源供应充足。另外,日元疲软仍是影响日本物价走势的主要因素之一,这不仅加剧了本已高企的能源价格带来的负担,还可能进一步推高进口成本。巴克莱经济学家表示,若出现日元大幅下跌且日本当局的汇率干预无法遏制跌势的情况,日本央行可能被迫最早于9月加息。

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