The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0859 ET - Treasury yields drop from recent highs as Fed week starts with a pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices fall sharply while the WSJ Dollar Index slips less than 0.1%. June durable goods orders rise 0.3%, missing WSJ consensus of a 2.1% increase. The Fed is expected to remain on hold Wednesday, but uncertainty is higher than usual. Futures markets price 34% odds of a rate increase, according to CME. The 10-year yield is at 4.647%, down from Friday's 4.678% settle. The two-year drops to 4.320% from 4.328%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0841 ET - Sterling falls to a three-week low against the euro as U.K. fiscal concerns weigh. New Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government has announced tax cuts to electricity bills and business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues along with a cap on bus fares. "We are beginning to see a few jitters among investors as the tax cuts unveiled so far both appear unfunded and raise the risk of tax hikes and additional borrowing down the road," Ebury economist Enrique Diaz-Alvarez says in a note. The euro rises to as high as 0.8559 pounds. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3383. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0813 ET - Copper prices rise in afternoon trading as a pause in fighting between the U.S. and Iran pushes oil lower, easing concerns over inflation pressures and global economic growth. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange are up 1.2% to $13,769.50 a metric ton. Focus in recent weeks has been on potential new U.S. import tariffs and Chinese demand. "In China, the premium paid for imported copper over local supplies in China rose to $100 a ton, up from $20 a ton in late January, a sign of strong demand," ANZ analysts say. "The market is also bracing for the possibility that the Trump administration imposes levies on imports of copper, which continues to attract increasing volumes of metal into the U.S." Meanwhile, a deadly storm in Chile disrupted production at major copper mines, adding further supply concerns. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0755 ET - Markets lower their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months as oil prices fall. The U.S. and Iran paused attacks over the weekend, after two weeks of exchanging fire, causing oil prices to fall. Brent crude is last down 7.8% at $89.2 a barrel. Lower energy prices ease inflation concerns and reduce the possibility of rapid central-bank rate rises in the coming months. Investors currently price a total of 36 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, 11 basis points lower than Friday's pricing, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0753 ET - The Ifo Instite's business-climate index surprised positively in July, reaching its highest since February, Deutsche Bank economist Marc Schattenberg says. The headline index rose to 86.6, from 85.7 in June. Expectations rose significantly, suggesting the German government's reform package proposed this month likely bolstered many firms' hopes, he says. The downside is that the survey's gauge of current business conditions deteriorated, likely a result of the renewed rise in oil prices, which will remain a risk for the coming months, Schattenberg says. However, the Ifo data sends a positive signal regarding the German economy's start to the third quarter, he says. He pencils in economic growth of 0.5% for 2026 as a whole. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0751 ET - Euro-denominated investment-grade credit looks more attractive than their dollar-denominated counterparts due to better demand-supply balance, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note. Euro IG supply is expected to be modest while U.S. IG supply is expected to rise notably, the strategists say. Euro IG credit spreads are expected to stay relatively steady making the assets more appealing than U.S. IG credit which is expected to experience spread widening, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0740 ET - The message from July's Ifo business-climate index is moderately supportive of German economic activity strengthening, echoing last week's PMI data, S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Timo Klein says in a note. The increase in the index to 86.6 in July from 85.7 in June was the third consecutive rise, driven by stronger expectations, though assessments of current conditions fell a little. Still, most survey responses were likely submitted before last week's sharp jump in oil prices, Klein says. "Our mid-July forecast puts German GDP growth at 0.6% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027, up 0.2 percentage points from June." That reflects June's larger-than-expected oil-price fall, though continued volatility in the Middle East warrants caution, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0730 ET - The dollar could resume appreciating if the Federal Reserve surprises markets with an interest-rate rise on Wednesday, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "We have been assuming that the Fed would leave rates on hold this week but one can't completely rule out the possibility of a rate hike," he says. A rate rise would send a powerful signal that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is serious about improving the central bank's inflation fighting credibility at the start of his term, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 101.316. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0728 ET - The significant increase in the Ifo German business-climate survey is only of limited significance since most companies answered the survey before the massive oil-price increase of the last two weeks, Commerzbank's Joerg Kraemer says in a note. The index rose to 86.6 in July, from 85.7 in June. Most companies usually respond to the Ifo survey by the middle of the month, he says. The road looks bumpy ahead, and high energy prices are set to weigh on the German economy in the second half of the year. However, the increase at least shows the potential for economic recovery if the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is permanently opened, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0649 ET - Credit spreads on U.S. dollar investment-grade bonds are expected to widen due to anticipated heavy debt issuance by large tech companies, Morgan Stanley credit strategists say in a note. Huge cloud service providers, also known as hyperscalers, are expected to increase debt issuance to fund AI-related projects, pushing up U.S. IG credit supply. Increased merger and acquisition activities and upcoming credit maturies are also likely to drive up U.S. corporate debt supply, the strategists say. "We think stronger supply headwinds will drive U.S. IG spreads modestly wider." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0540 ET - Sterling could fall as the Bank of England looks set to leave interest rates unchanged Thursday while fiscal uncertainty persists, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. Monex expects another 7-2 vote in favor of keeping rates at 3.75% with Megan Greene and Huw Pill again preferring a rate rise. Risks are skewed towards a larger minority favoring a rate rise or BOE Governor Andrew Bailey hinting at tightening in the fall, the analysts say. "Failing that, with fiscal uncertainty under Prime Minister Andy Burnham still weighing on the pound, we retain a modest downside bias for sterling." Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3332 against a weaker dollar but falls 0.2% against the euro at 0.8546 per euro. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0538 ET - Markets should expect a low-growth, high-inflation global environment after the U.S. imposed new tariffs on key trading partners last week, CG Asset Management's Emma Moriarty says in a note. The U.S. on Friday announced new tariffs on 60 trading partners including the European Union and China. The tariffs take effect against a backdrop of a global energy shock and increased supply-chain disruptions, Moriarty says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 27, 2026 08:59 ET (12:59 GMT)

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