The Trump administration is set to roll out another set of tariffs to replace the temporary 10% ones that expire on Friday. And still more tariffs are on the horizon -- as well as the prospect of a trade war, making it difficult for companies to cross trade off their list of concerns.

The temporary 10% tariffs the Trump administration imposed after the Supreme Court struck down its global tariffs in February expire on July 24. Administration officials have vowed to re-create approximately the same level of revenue they had planned with their global tariffs through other tools like two Section 301 investigations into unfair trade practices launched after the court decision.

One of those probes -- targeting 60 economies and affecting more than 90% of U.S. trade -- has been completed, with the U.S. proposing 10% tariff on economies that have existing measures or provisions in the works to target forced labor, but where the administration alleges the rules are "under-enforced." About 15 economies fall into that group, including, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, Cambodia, and Malaysia. Others -- including China, South Korea, and Japan -- will be hit with a 12.5% tariff.

These levies are expected to replace the temporary tariffs that expire Friday, but trade lawyers note the possibility of a procedural gap before they go into effect as the U.S. Trade Representative works through some 1,500 comments received after announcing the proposal. That could create some short-term messiness for Customs & Border Protection, but trade lawyers expect those levies to be replaced quickly enough.

The Yale Budget Lab expected the U.S. to bring in $2.3 trillion in revenue over the next decade before the Supreme Court declared the global tariffs illegal. If the U.S. replaces the 10% tariff with levies related to forced labor, the group now expects the U.S. to bring in about $2 trillion in revenue.

But trade lawyers see still more tariffs ahead. Companies have largely expected a baseline tariff of around 10% and see the rates in the trade deals as the top end of the tariff range. But conviction around that baseline is shaky, with continued uncertainty about what comes next, which goods could be excluded, and how trading partners will react to the continued tariffs and tariff threats.

Brooks Allen, former assistant USTR general counsel and now a partner at Skadden Arps, expects a layering of tariffs, possibly through multiple Section 301 investigations, that eventually approximate what the administration had before the Supreme Court ruling. "They may be targeting different groups of countries in some cases but will keep whittling away until they create a similar tariff landscape," he said.

Still looming is the USTR's Section 301 investigation into excess capacity, which targets China and other economies, and a bill in Congress that would give the president discretion to impose secondary tariffs on the top five buyers of Russian oil, which includes allies like Japan and France.

These other tariffs could take some time to materialize. Trade lawyers don't expect the USTR to unveil proposed remedies to its excess capacity investigation, which will likely result in findings against China, ahead of the planned meetup between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late September. Affordability concerns ahead of the midterm elections, especially as the continuing war in Iran raises fuel prices, could also mean the administration keeps the ability to raise tariffs in its back pocket rather than do so ahead of the election.

And that threat is likely to stay alive, underscored by 25% tariffs on certain Brazil goods that go into effect on Wednesday, Trump warning on Tuesday he would impose 100% tariffs on generic drugs in 2028 if companies that don't bring manufacturing on shore, and threatening 50% tariffs on Canada on Monday.

The Trump administration used a little-used Section 338 of the Trade Act for the levies on $20 billion of goods and cited Canada's retaliatory measures against U.S. autos, cheese, and alcohol. Unlike past duties, these didn't exempt goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact.

Trade analysts see it as the U.S. playing hardball as tensions have been high among the major trading partners. While the U.S. has held several formal negotiations with Mexico to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact, it hasn't done so with Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a statement Tuesday that Canada has made several proposals to resolve disputes and modernize the trade pact. He also vowed to take "any measures needed" to strengthen Canada's economy and protect its businesses.

The latest threats reinforce the view that the Trump administration is going to keep tariffs in its toolbox to enforce trade pacts and push to bring manufacturing back stateside.

Markets are shrugging off the latest tariff tit-for-tat. "You would need a dramatic return of tariffs for trade policy to become relevant again [for the market]," says Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research.

Companies are more perturbed as the tariff uncertainty they had hoped would subside has bled into this year, clouding investment and strategic decisions. They are looking for flexibility in their operations to contend with the uncertainty, from shrinkflation and reducing the variety of products to not rolling out new or experimental products, says Tiffany Smith, vice president of global trade policy at the National Foreign Trade Council, whose members include Fortune 100 companies.

Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 25, 2026 09:40 ET (13:40 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.